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Just published a short piece on what next for the Job Retention Scheme.
@RishiSunak will be making three big decisions this week.
First, on employer contributions...
@RishiSunak will be making three big decisions this week.
First, on employer contributions...
There's a strong case for treating the hardest-hit sectors differently from the bulk of the economy.
They're on a slower 'unlockdown' timetable, with bigger hits to demand and supply likely.
They're on a slower 'unlockdown' timetable, with bigger hits to demand and supply likely.
Going for a one-size-fits-all approach means finding the magic (maybe non-existent) number.
A cost-sharing amount that's high enough to get most businesses using the JRS increasing economic activity, but not too high so as to cause excess redundancies from hospitality/leisure.
A cost-sharing amount that's high enough to get most businesses using the JRS increasing economic activity, but not too high so as to cause excess redundancies from hospitality/leisure.
That's why putting some sectors on a slower timetable makes sense. Chancellor should also not feel like he has to set a cost-sharing rate and stick to it. Better to start low (c. 10%) and ramp-up over the following months.
Next decision is on how to operate flexible furloughing. Three key things here:
1. As flexible as possible
2. Matched with tough/proactive/clear enforcement
3. Introduce as soon as possible.
1. As flexible as possible
2. Matched with tough/proactive/clear enforcement
3. Introduce as soon as possible.
Third decision: when to close scheme to new entrants.
Soon for businesses who haven't used it yet. For those that have, allow new furloughs but don't allow an increase in furloughs at any one time per firm.
Soon for businesses who haven't used it yet. For those that have, allow new furloughs but don't allow an increase in furloughs at any one time per firm.
And finally - don't wind-down the JRS for those who cannot work as a direct result of non-economic interventions in their lives to protect the community.
Think parents caring for children usually at school, or those told to self-isolate for successful test/trace.
Think parents caring for children usually at school, or those told to self-isolate for successful test/trace.
Read the whole blog here https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/comment/three-big-decisions-for-the-chancellor-on-the-future-of-the-job-retention-scheme/
And the full report on the future of the JRS for more of the analysis underpinning these recommendations https://www.resolutionfoundation.org/publications/getting-britain-working-safely-again/
