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I have noticed that my WR rankings vary quite a lot from that of other data analysts and I think it is because I put a different emphasis on draft capital when looking at prospects.
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I still want day 1 and 2 picks, but if a player is drafted on day 1 or 2 but doesnt have the rest of the profile to go with it I still basically remove them from my draft board.
Lets take a look at why.
Lets take a look at why.
Lets limit it to round 1 and 2 for simplicity and look at nothing beyond market share of receiving yards. We will go through every WR back to 2010.
Keep in mind, this is about spotting busts, not hits.
This is going to be very long. Sorry.
Keep in mind, this is about spotting busts, not hits.
This is going to be very long. Sorry.
Generally speaking when it comes to production I like to see consistent domination and an 18 or 19 breakout.
Alternatively the other profile that I am interested in is players that didnt play at 18 or 19 but dominated as soon as they got on the field
Alternatively the other profile that I am interested in is players that didnt play at 18 or 19 but dominated as soon as they got on the field
Round 1, pick 22 - Demaryius Thomas
Yup.
Yup.
Round 1, Pick 24 - Dez Bryant
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 39 - Arrelious Benn
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 60 - Golden Tate
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
2011
Round 1, pick 4 - AJ Green
Yup
Round 1, pick 4 - AJ Green
Yup
Round 1, pick 6 - Julio Jones
Yup
Yup
Round 1, pick 26 - Jonathan Baldwin
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 44 - Titus Young
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 58 - Torrey Smith
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Round 2, pick 59 - Greg Little
Nope.
His fantasy finishes in ppg:
55
63
96
139
Nope.
His fantasy finishes in ppg:
55
63
96
139
Round 2, pick 64 - Randall Cobb
Yup.
Yup.
2012
Round 1, pick 5 - Justin Blackmon
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Round 1, pick 5 - Justin Blackmon
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Round 1, pick 13 - Michael Floyd
Yup.
Also it should be noted I strongly prefer early declares, but that's a story for another day.
Yup.
Also it should be noted I strongly prefer early declares, but that's a story for another day.
Round 1, pick 20 - Kendall Wright
Yup.
But he's another senior.
Yup.
But he's another senior.
Round 1, pick 30 - AJ Jenkins
Nope, two years below is not good.
Also floundered for first two years.
Also a senior.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
134
138
Nope, two years below is not good.
Also floundered for first two years.
Also a senior.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
134
138
Round 2, pick 33 - Brian Quick
Meh. Senior, no age 18 or 19 and didnt dominate from day 1.
Meh. Senior, no age 18 or 19 and didnt dominate from day 1.
Round 2, pick 43 - Stephen Hill
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 45 - Alshon Jeffery
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 54 - Ryan Broyles
So much nope. Senior, two years below, super old prospect.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
70
140
So much nope. Senior, two years below, super old prospect.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
70
140
Round 2, pick 63 - Rueben Randle
Yup.
Yup.
2013
Round 1, pick 8 - Tavon Austin
Yup.
Round 1, pick 8 - Tavon Austin
Yup.
Round 1, pick 27 - DeAndre Hopkins
Yup.
Yup.
Round 1, pick 29 - Cordarelle Patterson
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR53
95
168
79
101
108
143
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR53
95
168
79
101
108
143
Round 2, pick 34 - Justin Hunter
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR99
72
93
97
163
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR99
72
93
97
163
Round 2, pick 41 - Robert Woods
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 59 - Aaron Dobson
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR58
114
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR58
114
2014
Round 1, pick 4 - Sammy Watkins
Yup.
Round 1, pick 4 - Sammy Watkins
Yup.
Round 1, pick 7 - Mike Evans
Yup.
Yup.
Round 1, pick 12 - Odell Beckham
Yup.
Yup.
Round 1, pick 20 - Brandin Cooks
Yup.
Yup.
Round 1, pick 28 - Kelvin Benjamin
Nope.
Fantasty PPG finishes:
18
38
55
128
Nope.
Fantasty PPG finishes:
18
38
55
128
Round 2, pick 39 - Marqise Lee
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 42 - Jordan Matthews
Yup. But senior
Yup. But senior
Round 2, pick 45 - Paul Richardson
Yup. But senior.
Yup. But senior.
Round 2, pick 53 - Davante Adams
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 56 - Cody Latimer
Close.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR151
150
98
107
112
Close.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR151
150
98
107
112
Round 2, pick 61 - Allen Robinson
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 63 - Jarvis Landry
On his own, kind of scary. But when you factor in he played with Odell Beckham fairly impressive. I am afraid I am not as familiar with some of the older players but if they also played with a superstar feel free to bump them up.
On his own, kind of scary. But when you factor in he played with Odell Beckham fairly impressive. I am afraid I am not as familiar with some of the older players but if they also played with a superstar feel free to bump them up.
2015
Round 1, pick 4 - Amari Cooper
Yup.
Round 1, pick 4 - Amari Cooper
Yup.
Round 1, pick 7 - Kevin White
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR62
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR62
Round 1, pick 14 - DeVante Parker
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR52
55
46
112
15
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR52
55
46
112
15
Round 1, pick 20 - Nelson Agholor
Nope. No 18 or 19 and did not dominate from day 1.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR126
98
29
55
68
Nope. No 18 or 19 and did not dominate from day 1.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR126
98
29
55
68
Round 1, pick 26 - Breshad Perriman
Really close to the Jarvis Landry and Cody Latimer production profiles.
Could go either way. He played with nobody of consequence similar to Latimer so I'd go no, but you can make your own decision.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR84
153
102
59
Really close to the Jarvis Landry and Cody Latimer production profiles.
Could go either way. He played with nobody of consequence similar to Latimer so I'd go no, but you can make your own decision.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR84
153
102
59
Round 1, pick 29 - Phillip Dorsett
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR120
86
128
78
65
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR120
86
128
78
65
Round 2, pick 37 - Devin Smith
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR137
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR137
Round 2, pick 40 - Dorial Green-Beckham
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR70
91
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR70
91
2016
Round 1, pick 15 - Corey Coleman
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR64
76
159
Round 1, pick 15 - Corey Coleman
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR64
76
159
Round 1, pick 21 - Will Fuller
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20
Round 1, pick 22 - Josh Doctson
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR66
86
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR66
86
Round 1, pick 23 - Laquon Treadwell
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR138
125
137
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR138
125
137
Round 2, pick - 40 - Sterling Shepard
Yup. But senior.
Yup. But senior.
Round 2, pick 47 - Michael Thomas
NOPE.
Here is your outlier ladies and gentlemen....
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR8
5
6
1
NOPE.
Here is your outlier ladies and gentlemen....
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR8
5
6
1
Round 2, pick 55 - Tyler Boyd
Yup.
Yup.
2017
Round 1, pick 5 - Corey Davis
Yup, but senior.
Round 1, pick 5 - Corey Davis
Yup, but senior.
Round 1, pick 7 - Mike Williams
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR142
44
47
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR142
44
47
Round 1, pick 9 - John Ross
Nope.
WR98
40
Nope.
WR98
40
Round 2, pick 37 - Zay Jones
Nope. Senior that didnt breakout until age 20 while floundering for two years.
Fantasy PPG finishes:
106
51
135
Nope. Senior that didnt breakout until age 20 while floundering for two years.
Fantasy PPG finishes:
106
51
135
Round 2, pick 40 - Curtis Samuel
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 62 - Juju Smith-Schuster
Yup.
Yup.
2018
Round 1, pick 24 - DJ Moore
Yup.
Round 1, pick 24 - DJ Moore
Yup.
Round 1, pick 26 - Calvin Ridley
Yup, dominated from day 1.
Yup, dominated from day 1.
Round 2, pick 40 - Courtland Sutton
Yup. Senior though.
Yup. Senior though.
Round 2, pick 44 - Dante Pettis
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR70
WR129
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR70
WR129
Round 2, pick 47 - Christian Kirk
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 51 - Anthony Miller
Nope. No production until age 21 and failed in his first year at age 20.
Nope. No production until age 21 and failed in his first year at age 20.
Round 2, pick 60 - James Washington
Yup, but senior.
Yup, but senior.
Round 2, pick 61 - DJ Chark
Could go either way, I went with no because Malachi Dupree is a long ways off of Odell Beckham if you recall the Jarvis Landry graph?
Could go either way, I went with no because Malachi Dupree is a long ways off of Odell Beckham if you recall the Jarvis Landry graph?
2019
Round 1, pick 25 - Marquise Brown
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR50
Round 1, pick 25 - Marquise Brown
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR50
Round 1, pick 32 - N'Keal Harry
Yup.
Yup.
Round 2, pick 36 - Deebo Samuel
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR33
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR33
Round 2, pick 51 - AJ Brown
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Round 2, pick 56 - Mecole Hardman
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR75
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR75
Round 2, pick 57 - JJ Arcega Whiteside
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Kind of yup. Two good seasons, but not until age 20.
Round 2, pick 59 - Parris Campbell
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR103
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finishes:
WR103
Round 2, pick 62 - Andy Isabella
Yup, senior though.
Yup, senior though.
Round 2, pick 64 - DK Metcalf
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finshes:
WR41
Nope.
Fantasy ppg finshes:
WR41
Production profiles are one aspect of what I look at, not everything that I look at, but nearly everyone that failed at dominating their teams passing attack early and often in college flamed out despite top 2 round draft capital.
You will also notice that there were also a lot of productive college players busted, that is why production alone doesnt matter, just like draft capital alone doesnt matter.
It would seem that I am substantially lower than even the data analysts on guys such as Brandon Aiyuk, Michael Pittman, Henry Ruggs, etc.
This is very much the type of thing that I look at when doing my dynasty and rookie rankings on patreon.
This is very much the type of thing that I look at when doing my dynasty and rookie rankings on patreon.
