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My short thread: Brexit, and why we WON& #39;T leave no-deal. How & why Johnson resigns, and what comes next. Just my theory - up for discussion.
We are heading towards year 5 after the referendum, and the failure to release the Russian report is significant. If there is nothing of note to damn the campaigns, then why not release it? It& #39;s illegitimate to Brexit without seeing it.
Note please the r/w are now calling Dec 31st & #39;real& #39; Brexit day. That& #39;s because we are in stasis. Decree nisi - decree absolute. Things can, and I feel will, change. The EU have clearly offered a 2 year extension, now - does Cummings the & #39;mastermind& #39; stick or twist?
He sticks, he tanks the economy. But more importantly, the first, and hardest hit will be the & #39;red wall& #39; voters who leant their votes in Dec. If they stagger on until 2024 (no chance) that won& #39;t be forgotten. Neither will the dystopian recession coming soon
meaning that the deregulated economy they are trying to create will be of little use to them out of power. Twist - the r/w will literally eat itself. Note a SM push again for ND - Banks trying to & #39;fight& #39; @brianmoore666 and Farage shouting at the sea are dead cats. Nothing more.
Parliament will split, and once again the ERG will be a party within a party. They are pretending they aren& #39;t currently. 80 seat majority is a myth. Learn to count. 41 dissenters are needed, that& #39;s all. And it& #39;s why they won& #39;t push Huawei - it won& #39;t pass.
So what do Johnson & Cummings do? Neither. They can& #39;t. They are trapped. Johnson doesn& #39;t want the job, can& #39;t do the job and is on his way out. I think he& #39;ll extend - and resign. Blaming the EU, Covid and fatherhood.
Next, another Tory leadership battle. The press Barons want Gove - the ERG Patel. The Hunt/Mordaunt/Javid/Clark (watch him) more one nation crowd will choose a leader and split the r/w vote - and win. The next Govt. They extend, and may now & #39;actually& #39; negotiate
which can only end up realistically with one outcome: SM & Customs Union. BRINO. (which in no way do I support) We will semi-exit at the end of 2022 which will make fully rejoining easier. Call me mystic Meg later.
