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My short thread: Brexit, and why we WON'T leave no-deal. How & why Johnson resigns, and what comes next. Just my theory - up for discussion.
We are heading towards year 5 after the referendum, and the failure to release the Russian report is significant. If there is nothing of note to damn the campaigns, then why not release it? It's illegitimate to Brexit without seeing it.
Note please the r/w are now calling Dec 31st 'real' Brexit day. That's because we are in stasis. Decree nisi - decree absolute. Things can, and I feel will, change. The EU have clearly offered a 2 year extension, now - does Cummings the 'mastermind' stick or twist?
He sticks, he tanks the economy. But more importantly, the first, and hardest hit will be the 'red wall' voters who leant their votes in Dec. If they stagger on until 2024 (no chance) that won't be forgotten. Neither will the dystopian recession coming soon
meaning that the deregulated economy they are trying to create will be of little use to them out of power. Twist - the r/w will literally eat itself. Note a SM push again for ND - Banks trying to 'fight' @brianmoore666 and Farage shouting at the sea are dead cats. Nothing more.
Parliament will split, and once again the ERG will be a party within a party. They are pretending they aren't currently. 80 seat majority is a myth. Learn to count. 41 dissenters are needed, that's all. And it's why they won't push Huawei - it won't pass.
So what do Johnson & Cummings do? Neither. They can't. They are trapped. Johnson doesn't want the job, can't do the job and is on his way out. I think he'll extend - and resign. Blaming the EU, Covid and fatherhood.
Next, another Tory leadership battle. The press Barons want Gove - the ERG Patel. The Hunt/Mordaunt/Javid/Clark (watch him) more one nation crowd will choose a leader and split the r/w vote - and win. The next Govt. They extend, and may now 'actually' negotiate
which can only end up realistically with one outcome: SM & Customs Union. BRINO. (which in no way do I support) We will semi-exit at the end of 2022 which will make fully rejoining easier. Call me mystic Meg later.
