Shifting Tides of the Great Game: China & the World.

Hong Kong, Huawei, and Trade.

A lot went on today and you probably missed it, so here's a quick recap.

The elephant in the room: US State declares HK not autonomous from China.

This is important, as China was using HK as a vassal pass-through to wash Chinese funds avoiding some tarrifs, taxes, and regulations because it's a special case. https://twitter.com/i/events/1265698322674675712?s=13

In short anything financially or physically traded coming out of HK is treated, as if it came from any other part of China. The US closed one loophole China uses to maintain its economy.

This acknowledges China is subsuming HK and its special status may be at a premature end.

This is seen as retaliation for the recent civil liberties crackdown in HK. Protests originally started last year due to an extradition law.

I'm more cynical, since everyone at the Top believes in the Great Power Politics: this was the convenient excuse. https://twitter.com/i/events/1265466512715812864

The US has always quietly supported HK and Taiwan as pro-democracy legacies of the Truman Doctrine; also to ensure hegemony.

Globalist Liberals hoped adding China to the WTO would democratize the country and these two entities would be free. In part, this is how we got here.

Also conveniently, hours before State's announcement: A Canadian court agreed to continue extradition of Huawei's CFO to the US after 18 months of litigation.

China has been holding two Canadian citizens, as leverage to release her. https://twitter.com/i/events/1265722289598763011

This is another extension of US China trade war. Both literally due to the potential to cripple Huawei and symbolically akin to Spassky vs Fisher.

She will likely face trial in the US, as Canada has a 90% extradition rate. It currently looks like the US has the upper hand.

What comes next? More positioning. People will claim this leads us on a collision course with China. Dubbed the modern Thucydides Trap.

This isn't likely, as China is a Glass Tiger.

Curious? Here's another thread on why China acts, the way they act: https://twitter.com/Kairon01/status/1195959643748462592?s=20