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‘Conspiracy theory’ gets thrown around a lot these days. But we don’t talk enough about WHY they are effective
Conspiracy theories have structural, motivational, & permission-granting characteristics that explain why they work
New analysis for @SURfdn /1 https://standuprepublic.com/what-lessons-havent-we-learned-since-2016-lesson-4-why-conspiracy-theories-work
Conspiracy theories have structural, motivational, & permission-granting characteristics that explain why they work
New analysis for @SURfdn /1 https://standuprepublic.com/what-lessons-havent-we-learned-since-2016-lesson-4-why-conspiracy-theories-work
A few years ago, I wrote about how conspiracies are used to build narrative architecture that, over time, becomes an activated, cascading system for transmitting information to target groups on social media. It’s a kind of conditioning.
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This is how I think of conspiracy theories:
“When it comes to the psychology that shapes mass movements, there are 2 fundamental rules: Everybody wants to be a part of something bigger than themselves, & everybody wants someone to tell them what to do so things turn out OK... /3
“When it comes to the psychology that shapes mass movements, there are 2 fundamental rules: Everybody wants to be a part of something bigger than themselves, & everybody wants someone to tell them what to do so things turn out OK... /3
... With that in mind, our understanding of what conspiracy theories are and why they work comes into focus. Conspiracy theories aren’t something that stupid or uneducated people fall for—they are something that people who want to believe in something latch on to... /4
...Maybe it’s religion, family, national identity, ethnic identity, community, or government that used to be this structure—the system of belief, the answers to who you are and where you fit within the system... /5
... But when those break down, conspiracies can take their place, particularly in times of rapid change or upheaval. They become the framework for making things that don’t make any sense somehow understandable.” /6
In the above description, aspects of the structural, motivational, and permission-granting characteristics of conspiracies begin to become more distinct.
What do these mean? /7
What do these mean? /7
STRUCTURAL:
There are two structural characteristics of conspiracies that are important.
One is physical: conspiracies establish narrative architecture, which reinforces networks within social media (and offline communities) among which information can move quickly /8
There are two structural characteristics of conspiracies that are important.
One is physical: conspiracies establish narrative architecture, which reinforces networks within social media (and offline communities) among which information can move quickly /8
The second is predictive, premonitory: the narrative architecture of a conspiracy theory establishes a framework through which future information is evaluated, and often questions preempted /9
Both the physical and predictive characteristics of conspiracy theories exploit our psychological tendency to look for structure, a tendency toward what is known as “pattern recognition” (a term I cannot think about without thinking of @GreatDismal book by same name!) /10
MOTIVATIONAL:
Conspiracy theories provide purpose for believers and a directionality of action.
Online conspiracy theories are driven by “independent research” that is done by members of the group. This sense of purpose is powerful, creating a sense of control and belonging /11
Conspiracy theories provide purpose for believers and a directionality of action.
Online conspiracy theories are driven by “independent research” that is done by members of the group. This sense of purpose is powerful, creating a sense of control and belonging /11
PERMISSION-GRANTING:
Conspiracy theories exploit our innate belief that what is “authentic” is more powerful, and they grant us permission to believe in fringe views or theories. Sometimes this rests heavily on concepts of heroes and villains. /12
Conspiracy theories exploit our innate belief that what is “authentic” is more powerful, and they grant us permission to believe in fringe views or theories. Sometimes this rests heavily on concepts of heroes and villains. /12
So with this as a conceptual framework, I asked a lot of smart people how they think about conspiracies and why they work.
I got some really interesting answers, so I included a lot of them in the piece.
Short highlights: /13
I got some really interesting answers, so I included a lot of them in the piece.
Short highlights: /13
“A conspiracy theory always has you as the hero of the story... show off your faux bravery, but scale it outwards by building a community around it that tells each other how brave you each are, connects to other communities w/same perceived shared enemy” - @peterwsinger /14
“Conspiracy theories are a way to create order from the chaos… They attribute responsibility externally and also place a nefarious will at fault for why things aren’t happening the way we want them to.” - Graham Shellenberger, former Army psychological operations officer /15
“The world is a complex & often unknowable place, & we all tend to create patterns from what we see & hear to make sense of the world. Some people are more comfortable with the randomness of the world. Others need to create meaning even when it doesn’t exist.” - @john_sipher /16
“[Conspiracies] aren’t just stories. They have to be made to fit a narrative that has influence on the real world and is influenced by it, even if in an entirely contrived or imaginary way.” - @chessninja /17
“To believe in a conspiracy theory makes you feel better about yourself in some way. It gives you an excuse to feel, behave or act in a way that you know is not right.... I’m convinced people actually know that they are eating up lies. They just like it.” - @EerikNKross /18
“Conspiracy works so well online because, well, everything is connected on the internet. So it’s incredibly easy to see conspiratorial connections, or to imagine them from the linked data.” - @chrizap /19
“[In COVID conspiracies], we are also seeing a top-down style of conspiracy, with narratives emerging...or being significantly amplified by prominent authority figures/state media... the figures involved tend to have...a high degree of trust within society.” - @noUpside /20
“They play to a strength of the internet, which is eliminating gatekeepers…& powering...a sort of vigilante investigation mindset. That’s continued to evolve into communities dedicated to pursuing the narrative they want to believe, retrofitting info to that worldview” @cwarzel
“Russians come from a society that more readily engages in conspiracy theory...The understand organically how the power of propaganda works on a society...Americans [used to view] the press as an unbiased source of facts. This was never the case in Russia”- @StevenLHall1 /22
“First, the idea that experts cannot be trusted or know less than ‘me.’ Second, ‘I read it on the Internet’ is alive and well. Once it was a derogatory label, now it’s a mark of authenticity...Third, time to deliberate is less. Or rather, desire to deliberate”- @mountainrunner /23
“White noise. Like in EW (electronic warfare). The importance of conspiracy theories is to hide real conspiracies.” - @Danylyuk /24
“I also think as tech expands, the negative (or positive, depending on your role) aspect of is twofold:
1) Info overload = intentional ignorance
2) Platform overload = easier to spread your shit theory throughout all aspects of digital life” -Army psyop officer /25
1) Info overload = intentional ignorance
2) Platform overload = easier to spread your shit theory throughout all aspects of digital life” -Army psyop officer /25
There is a repetition of themes. Conspiracy theories exploit the problems with architecture in social media; they seek to impose order in chaos; they reflect the rejection of “establishment”-thinking & expertise that defines this era, a movement to pursue “one’s own truths”/26
Conspiracy theories exploit some of the most vulnerable aspects of our psychology as individuals and as a society. They play to our desire to find heroes and villains within stories. They are fundamentally linked to a desire to belong and have meaning. /27
But conspiracy theories are also used as diversion & recruitment — deliberately used to exploit psychology & build like-minded target groups on-/offline.
This is why allowing conspiracy-think to propagate across the internet creates national security vulnerabilities /28
This is why allowing conspiracy-think to propagate across the internet creates national security vulnerabilities /28
We still want to believe that these are fringe ideas believed by crazy people who don’t understand all of the things that we do. But accepting that there is a more complex explanation for why conspiracies are believed by so many informs how we seek to intervene /29
So, what can you do about it?
1-When engaging a family member or friend who is amplifying conspiracies, try to understand how they came to this information. What is their logic? Can that inform how you talk to them? Read more on this in the article: /30 https://standuprepublic.com/what-lessons-havent-we-learned-since-2016-lesson-4-why-conspiracy-theories-work/
1-When engaging a family member or friend who is amplifying conspiracies, try to understand how they came to this information. What is their logic? Can that inform how you talk to them? Read more on this in the article: /30 https://standuprepublic.com/what-lessons-havent-we-learned-since-2016-lesson-4-why-conspiracy-theories-work/
2- If trying to counter conspiracy narratives online, be very clear in what you are arguing and/or why the conspiracy narrative is meant to be deliberately damaging for corrosive. /31
3- Do not unintentionally amplify conspiracy content when trying to point out it is bonkers. /32
4- Be cautious about sharing and engaging connect-the-dots, rabbithole research on social media, especially when it relies on screenshots or sources you can’t see/access. Conspiracies target left and right alike!
Read the analysis for more: /33 https://standuprepublic.com/what-lessons-havent-we-learned-since-2016-lesson-4-why-conspiracy-theories-work/
Read the analysis for more: /33 https://standuprepublic.com/what-lessons-havent-we-learned-since-2016-lesson-4-why-conspiracy-theories-work/
