Could I please prevail upon you read and comment [THREAD]:

Here's an idea we came up with over a glass of wine last night for a path to economic recovery for Australia (and/or New Zealand) (ANZ). #covid19australia

In all the head-scratching about how a recovery could happen and what it could possibly look like, this plan gives more certainty than most, given some basic assumptions.

Here are the assumptions:

1. Given ANZ has had such remarkable success in suppressing coronavirus, that it would be possible, with whatever additional effort and cost, to practically eliminate COVID-19 in the community.

NZ is certainly pursuing that goal and Australia could.

Assumption 2

2. That it's unlikely there will be a vaccine or other treatment that will practically eliminate the threat of COVID-19 globally in the next 18 months - 2 years...

...There are all sorts of promising and pessimistic noises about a vaccine. It may be possible, it may not. Even if a really effective vaccine goes into its first testing tomorrow, its potential will not be known for months...

...and it would likely be 12-18 month before it was available if all went well. Then it'd need to be produced and rolled out globally, and then we'd need a period of mass testing around the planet to see if we really had got on top of it, and people weren't still getting sick.

So seems a very optimistic minimum of 18 months that COVID-19 would cease to be a global threat, and it could be years.

So what's the plan?

If Australia and New Zealand were to get reduce transmission in community to practically zero (still means that there could be odd legacy case but it is relentlessly tracked down and treated/quarantined) then we would have our much talked-about Trans-Tasman Bubble.

We could be one of the few areas with modern economies and infrastructure, space and ample high-quality food that has a coronavirus-free environment.

Effectively we could become a SANCTUARY from coronavirus.

Anyone coming in would be quarantined at their own cost for a minimum of 14 days - possibly longer depending on latest advice - and then be subject to tracking and regular testing when in the community - which is pretty much what happens when Australians return from overseas now.

As a coronavirus free zone, we could attract:

Temporary headquartering of global businesses,
Upmarket tourism,
Self-funded pay-per-visa individuals wishing to wait out the pandemic,
Off-season training, and/or game venues, for professional sports teams,

Cultural and sporting events that have been cancelled in other places,
Medical tourism for procedures in covid-safe environment,
And of course (if we showed a better attitude towards students) it could kick-start the overseas student market again.

So what do you think? I don't think I've heard anyone discuss this in quite these terms. If Australia eases up its restrictions too soon and blows a plausible path to zero it could be a huge missed opportunity and years of hell.

Or we leave the opportunity to New Zealand alone.

PS. I've thrown this out there for a kicking. It's something we've thought through a little over a glass or two, but there might be a very good reason it wouldn't work. Or maybe someone else has already discussed it. Or just maybe it might be useful. [END THREAD]