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This @propublica article gives a great illustration of why risk assessment tools are so dangerous and are a false criminal legal system reform. https://www.propublica.org/article/bill-barr-promised-to-release-prisoners-threatened-by-coronavirus-even-as-the-feds-secretly-made-it-harder-for-them-to-get-out
1/15
1/15
AG Barr said that they would consider releasing people with risk scores in the “minimum” risk category. Initially, about 20% of people. They only let out 1.8%. And people are dying from C19 in Fed custody.
2/15
2/15
To limit possible release, they just changed the risk score scale. A 21 score used to be “minimal” risk, but they changed it to a score of 6. So far fewer people fit that category—far fewer eligible for release.
3/15
3/15
This adjustability is not just a feature of the federal PATTERN tool; not just a manipulation by AG Barr. The adjustability of RA tools is a basic function of all of them—it’s why the police state loves RA tools.
4/15
4/15
The adjustability of RA tools allows whoever controls them to keep as many people in jail as they want just by changing the scoring scale. What do you think the architects of mass incarceration will do with such a tool?
5/15
5/15
RA tools are used for pretrial incarceration, sentencing, parole, probation supervision, release from prison and predictive policing deployment. They are used in child welfare decisions. They pretend to be scientific/objective.
6/15
6/15
Some of us have been warning of the danger of RA tools for years. @stoplapdspying @LACANetwork @JusticeLANow @HRW https://www.hrw.org/news/2019/06/26/submission-illinois-supreme-court-commission-pretrial-practices
7/15
7/15
Some criminal justice “reformers” are pushing for risk assessment tools. First Step Act relies heavily on them. California’s not reform bail reform SB10 requires them. https://www.thenation.com/article/archive/california-ended-cash-bail-but-may-have-replaced-it-with-something-even-worse/
8/15
8/15
Adjustable scoring isn’t something that can simply be regulated or fixed. It is an inherent feature of RA tools—and a reason to reject them. But there are other inherent flaws with RA make them unusable.
9/15
9/15
RA tools take a few superficial facts about an individual—for example, did the person miss a court date or have a prior conviction or not have a job-- without any explanation. Those facts create a profile.
10/15
10/15
The individual profile is compared to thousands of other people with similar profiles. If 10% of others with matching profile get re-arrested, then your risk estimate is 10% (yes, this is a highly simplified explanation)
11/15
11/15
So the algorithm of the RA tool ignores the context of your life to make a judgement about you based on how people with similar profiles have done in the past. Not exactly an individualized evaluation.
12/15
12/15
The profile is influenced by race and class. If the police stop, search and arrest black people at higher rates (they do), then black people will have a higher risk scores than white people regardless of actual likelihood of crime.
13/15
13/15
Racial bias in these profiling tools is basically a feature and a reason never to use them. @chels_bar @ColinDoyleLaw https://www.media.mit.edu/posts/algorithmic-risk-assessment/
14/15
14/15
So Risk Assessment tools 1) are racially biased, 2) make decisions based on profiles, 3) can be adjusted to keep as many people incarcerated as law enforcement wants. Why would anyone opposing the police state support them?
15/15
15/15
