It is wise to be careful when the magnitude of a mistake is huge.

"Anyone who sits on top of the largest hydrogen-oxygen fueled system in the world, knowing they’re going to light the bottom, and doesn’t get a little worried, does not fully understand the situation.”
John Young
In probabilistic exercises: "frequency of correctness does not matter; it is the magnitude of correctness that matters.” MM

25iQuiz: Local ski resort opens June 1 for "Spring Skiing." Reservations are required to manage crowds. What algorithm do you use to decide whether to go?
What are the factors you will use in deciding whether to participate in activities right now? The Lake of the Ozarks pool party is an obvious "no." What about other activities not so obvious? How much will you factor in age? What about the likely health of others participating?
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