Jennifer Lerner asked me: “Good calibration between accuracy and confidence is a goal we scientists inherently value. Are there political leaders or business leaders who have demonstrated that they, too, value calibration?”

Yes, indeed. Jeff Bezos famously warned early Amazon investors that there was a 70% chance they would lose everything they invested. CEOs and politicians can benefit from gaining a reputation for honesty and good calibration.

While exaggeration, deception, and bragadociousness can pay in the short term, it often has long term costs, not only because you might get exposed as a fraud but also it impairs your ability to make wise decisions and takes its toll on your ethical sense of self.