THREAD 1/11 In Russia, the pandemic has wrong-footed both the opposition and the authorities. His supporters expected a strong show of leadership that never came; his detractors expected a display of mendacity and cruelty that Putin forwent https://fam.ag/2X5d6AU 

2/11 Many assumed that Putin would behave with despotic disregard for their personal safetу. The popular TV series «Chernobyl» gave a recent reminder of this kind of behavior.

3/11 When the pandemic struck, two public occasions appeared immovable on the calendar. One was April 22, the day for which Putin had scheduled a referendum aimed to extend his power.

4/11 The other was May 9, when Russia normally celebrates Victory Day as its de facto national day. But Putin surprised these critics. He postponed both the referendum and the V-day celebrations

5/11 But Putin’s supporters can hardly claim that Russia furnishes an example of the benefits of the authoritarian model in a crisis.

6/11 The contagion did not elicit from Putin’s regime a muscular response worthy of the best arguments for authoritarian discipline. Russia imposed its lockdown measures, restrictions, and fines far less stringently than China did.

7/11 Putin might have taken the occasion of the crisis to display some strong personal leadership to the public. Instead, his interventions have come across as belated and confusing.

8/11 A leader whom one might have expected to consolidate power in a crisis has instead returned a lot of decision-making powers to regional governors. The president loosened the reins in the midst of the crisis rather than tightening them.

9/11 Putin has chosen the governors to play the bad guys responsible for the health-care failures and personal constraints. For himself he has chosen the role of benefactor, bestowing gifts in the form of nonworking days and financial assistance.The trick hasn’t worked as planned

10/11 As the two events—Putin’s shift into uncamouflaged autocracy and the scourge of the coronavirus—have coincided in time, they are now also linked in politics.

11/11 Now, the Russian president is trying to return to that more optimistic past and bring the people out to vote for his plans at the end of June—but he does so from a position he has weakened. See more in my piece today in The Foreign Affairs https://fam.ag/2X5d6AU