THREAD: Over the past few days, there has been much confusion about Chinese actions. Have the Chinese crossed over into Indian territory or are they on their own side? How many troops have they deployed? I’ll try to explain.

First and foremost, it is important to note that there is no clearly defined border, or Line of Actual Control (LAC), which precisely separates the two countries. There are only perceptions of the LAC, and naturally, India’s perception differs from that of China.

Further, there is no formal “agreement” on what these perceptions are. In the past, the Chinese side has refused to even exchange maps showing the contrasting claims. The state of affairs looks like the diagram below. It’s simplistic, but suffices for the sake of this explanation

The differing perceptions of the LAC create an area of overlapping claim, and within that area, there exists a smaller area that both sides patrol regularly. When tensions are low and those patrols run into each other, the occasional clash occurs.

In recent times, these clashes have begun to occur with increased frequency because India has stepped up its patrolling. @ShivShankaMenon explains the dynamics here: https://twitter.com/tanvi_madan/status/1264571984110915585

Such confrontations are often reported in the media as “intrusions”. When the Army tries to explain the facts, Twitter generals who don’t know any better accuse it of pusillanimity. But I digress.

At present, however, the situation is *not* normal in the Galwan Valley, at Pangong Tso, and possibly in some parts of Sikkim and Uttaranchal. There are reports that the Chinese have encroached over into Indian territory, stayed put, and possibly set up semi-permanent structures.

Why? Because they’re alarmed by the construction of the Darbuk-Shyok-DBO Road. See thread: https://twitter.com/KesariDhwaj/status/1262806398406021125

@ananthkrishnan has a good breakdown of what transpired here: https://twitter.com/ananthkrishnan/status/1262818447123087361

Now, several experienced journalists are reporting details that appear to wildly differ from each other. Some are claiming that the Chinese have crossed over into India proper. Others are reporting that they are on their own side of the LAC, but that the situation is serious.

And they all report wildly varying numbers of troops⁠—anywhere between 1,500 and 10,000. So what is the truth? My take is that they’re all true in a narrow sense; and people are selectively interpreting what they want to interpret.

As far as I understand, Chinese troops have entered the light grey or dark grey areas shown in the graphic. That’s normal, but the fact that they are staying put is an escalation. And India sees it as an attempt to alter the status quo.

This is also why tensions have increased, and why India has moved troops into the region to deter/match Chinese deployments. So yes, the situation is serious. And depending on how you choose to interpret it, one or more of the following could be seen as “true”:

* The Chinese have intruded into Indian territory.
* There has been no intrusion.
* The Chinese have upped the number of troops, but on their own territory.
* China is attempting to alter the status quo on the ground and present India with a fait accompli.

* China and India share differing perceptions of the LAC,
and dialogue to resolve the current flare-up is ongoing.
* India has posted an appropriate military response by "refusing to back down".

Now, about the number of troops that China has deployed: This too could be interpreted differently. In a face-off like this one, no side takes all the personnel at its disposal and plonks them into one spot.

Some are tasked with holding ground in the contested area. Others are sent on patrols to probe/reconnoitre. And many more are deployed in the rear, as reserves and for logistical support.

So at any given time, the enemy could have anywhere between a few hundred to a few thousand soldiers in play. Some are "intruders", while others are not, although they still pose a threat.

And that's where you see the differing numbers coming from: some say 1,500, others say 3,000, still others suggest that the number is closer to 5,000. It's not a question of which number is correct as opposed to what these numbers mean.

To add to this complexity in the perception of the border and the number of troops on the ground, you have the fog of war further obscuring details.

The government is not letting any specifics out, so all we are left with is "source-based" reporting, with journalists reaching out to their connections and trying to paint a picture of what's really happening.

The information from these sources can often be outdated, misleading (either mistakenly or deliberately), or interpreted incorrectly. That creates more confusion in the mind of a lay observer.

To clear up this confusion—and the panic/hysteria that goes along with it—people have been calling for press statements from the government or Army.

It's a fair demand, but it benefits of doing so have to be weighed against the costs of denying oneself the flexibility to resolve the stand-off. Because by revealing too many details, the country could unintendedly commit itself to an aggressive course of action.