Last week’s @NYUCGA I spoke about tough EM finances. Highlighted a few groups
-already insolvent precovid
- precarious public finances facing new (oil) shock
- external balance crunch
-weak growth, contingent liabilities, but manageable debt https://www.facebook.com/150311758327380/posts/4149416735083509/?vh=e&d=n

All countries under pressure, even those with savings but those either with very high external public debt or very weak external balances that most likely need conditional finances -ie IMF programs. Policies to avoid too strong pro-cyclical cuts, especially health care, important

many investment grade countries, and some in junk territory have returned to markets, but are privileging USD financing not local debt, which could set up new financial challenges.

IMF is working faster than ever before but existing programs including debt standstills, emergency lending etc mostly tackles smaller poorer countries with larger EM facing fewer options especially those already struggling to grow. Plus key questions on Chinese debt

Dealing with actual insolvency and estimating real debt sustainability is even tougher than normal given range of macro outcomes, but for countries where debt can be financed issue is more question of avoiding procyclical austerity exacerbating LT growth