Go on then I’ll bite. Tried my best to ignore it, but the word “deeper” really hit me hard. No offence Logic, but honestly I’ve been deeper than this trying to thumb a semi into a 6/10 after a few too many nose beers...

Christopher Nkunku, a counter thread https://twitter.com/indexlogic/status/1265273625562628099

First off I’ll start with counter arguments to the points made on this post, and then have a have a proper delve into why he’s currently my biggest hold (will be as unbiased as possible ).

First point made was quite a baffling one, but I’ll mention it anyway. Top 2 scores...

Are 297 (exceptional) & 247 (very very good), but this is bad because of the fact he registered a goal and 6 assists across the 2 games. I mean, what? Ok so I get the point he’s trying to make. Basically, if he had a good PB “base” these scores would be much higher, and he has a

Point, or does he? Mr Logic had a good delve (presumably a 3 second whoscored search) and came up with the fact that Nkunku only completes 19 passes per game, thus meaning his “base” is terrible, ouch.

In all fairness, 19 passes a game is generally not a good start when it comes to scoring points on the PB matrix, so let’s look at why this number is so low...

Generally when a player transfers to a new team (top 4 BL team btw!) it can take some time to 1) cement a place...

In the team, and 2) gain the trust of your new teammates.

This picture emphasises point 1 perfectly, straight away you can see his minutes per game average is getting higher with almost every game.

But let’s have a deeper look, and then talk about what it means...

This table shows minutes per game, and passes per 90 per game, for each BL game Nkunku has been involved in this season. I’ve split it into 3 so you can see his progression.

You can see point 1 emphasised perfectly here, as his minutes per game is steadily growing over the...

Season, showing his importance to the team (could argue it would be higher as the last game he was subbed off 5th at 4-0 up).

For me, to be using his per game average rather than his per 90 average at this point, is hindering your research massively. Not only for passes, but...

For other metrics too. His average minutes per game across the season is 64, yet you can see he’s currently averaging well into the 80’s. Personally, I’m always trying to assess peak scores rather than averages anyway, so I prefer to use per 90 stats, as long as the player is...

Regularly playing 90 minutes, which he now is.

As for point 2, you can see during the first 9 games he only averaged 17.5 passes per 90. As he and the season have progressed, you can see his involvement has become greater, now averaging 29.8 per 90 in the last 9 games...

That number looks to have plateu’d (not sure that’s a word) somewhat, so I think it’s fair to say that is around about his average going forward playing in this team, although will vary by role.

While it’s a lot less shocking than 19, 30 passes a game still isn’t brilliant...

For a bit of context, KDB completes 46.7 per 90. Make of that what you will. But while passes are great for a good base score, they aren’t the be all and end all unlike on the previous matrix. Let’s have another delve then...

This is a table including the most well rewarded offensive actions on the PB matrix. I also add xG & xA data when researching players, as it can help assess the likelihood of a player hitting peak scores. Anyway, for attacking players, this is a good indicator of a “base” score.

The actions are multiplied by the amount of points they receive on the matrix, and then added together to make the “total” on the far right had side.

It doesn’t include all the midfielders on the index, it’s essentially just players I’ve looked at to research a bit deeper...

myself, with with KDB & Kroos as a kind of gauge to what a decent score is. As you can see KDB obviously streets ahead, but it’s interesting to see how highly Nkunku ranks...

But wait, he only makes 19 passes per game, how does he score so high? well, first off, the stats...

are per 90, so are a fairer reflection on his current output. Secondly, passes aren’t everything.

He ranks highest of anyone in key passes (3.99!), as well as ranking high in crosses, another very well rewarded action. As for the other stats, he’s consistently above average...

With them too, giving him a solid foundation. What really stands out for me is his xA+xG of 0.89. Again for some context, KDB’s is 0.83. This shows big peak scores are likely to come at least a few times a season. Already has 2 as previously mentioned (297 & 247), and will..

Have more. Especially when you consider he’s playing in a team with the 6th highest goal tally in Europe’s top 5 leagues. So the “needs a GWG and 2 assists to win PB” doesn’t actually look too unlikely. But is it even necessary? Let’s “delve deeper”...

There was a point made around the Gladbach game, in which he scored a goal, yet only managed 159 points for PB. On the surface it looks a good point, so we’ll use that as an example.

First off, *news flash* Gladbach are a good team, and at the time were in good form and 3rd...

In the BL. Not only that, they’re joint 3rd for fewest goals conceded, thus are well organised.

You can see from this picture they completely dominated the first half, until a half time Leipzig double change. Doesn’t look like an ideal game for a good PB score does it?

Anyway, let’s have a look at Nkunku. Straight away when you compare these stats to his averages in the table above, you can see that all of them other than key passes are below his average (again, unsurprising with opposition considered), so to call this his base is underselling

Him a bit, but we’ll go with it anyway. Here’s a few absolute worst case scenarios when you consider an assist could come from an accurate cross, which would add an extra 6 points to an assist (7 for the cross, -1 for pass). You can see from this that on a gold day, what Logic...

Is saying might not be too far from the truth, although I’ve seen 242 & 237 win gold days before. However, if you add the extra points to make his average “base” it starts to look a little better. So as you can see, his actual base + a goal is 178

Let’s update the first table with that value as the base + goal and see what we get... ok so it looks a bit better. You can take away the GWG and you’d be unlucky not to win with 2 assists, but I guess a goal and 2 assists is still a bit to ask, but again not too unlikely...

You could say with some certainly that a GWG and an assist wins a gold day most days, and arguably could sneak one with just an goal and an assist.

Ok so I’ve ran out of space on this tread, will try and follow it up shortly

Anyway, the main point I wanted to make is that averages, by nature, will fluctuate game to game. So to say he “needs” x amount of goals and assists to win PB is crazy. That game alone he was 2.7 crosses, and 1.9 accurate crosses below his base, if that swung the other side of...

The average you’re adding 42(!) points to his score, giving him 259 with just a goal and an assist. You see it all the time so I don’t really need to say it, but peaks win PB, and the lad has, and will continue to hit them at Leipzig.

I’m not gonna go into the “elite youth”...

Bit and the lack of France senior and U21 caps (France btw ). He wasn’t even a club regular until Christmas time so chances of an international call up were slim, and whilst youth caps can be a good indicator of talent they aren’t the be all and end all. Plenty of players...

Have had no international youth careers and gone on to be world class players (Lewandowski off the top of my head) and vice versa.

Next... Price.

£3.30 “where does he go from here”

Any answer to this is pure speculation as it will obviously be dependent on performance...

He’s definitely at an age and price where you’d like to be seeing some kind of dividend return, somewhere in the region on 5-10%. 17p for 5% looks a dead cert over the duration of a season, 33p maybe a little optimistic but very manageable. Obviously a potential dividend...

Increase/tiered would benefit him too. I’ve topped up at £3.20 & £3.30 recently and that’s about where I value him at the minute. Lots of positives and not too many negatives. Has all the attributes to suit the current matrix. Anyway, here’s my reasons for holding...

- Good for PB at current club
- Quality set piece taker
- Key pass/pass ratio shows good vision and creativity
- At a well known club for developing and selling players (potential future transfer MB)
- Fast, can dribble and looks like a top shagger (passes eye test)

- Potential France call up
- Could take set pieces for France?
- Only 22 and would benefit from any dividend increases over the duration of a 3 year hold.

Ok so in the interest of balance I’ll add a few negatives I can think of, feel free to call me out and add some more...

- Loss of set pieces would impact PB scores (seen Olmo and Rashica mentioned but fairly confident he takes them over both)
- First season getting consistent minutes, so sample size of stats is small.
- Versatility means he’s often played in different positions, which can...

Sometimes affect scores negatively (or positively)

Anyway, he’s just got an assist from a corner against Hertha and this game is a lot more appealing than continuing this thread so I’m out