Read on Twitter
It turns out the 80/20 rule applies to #COVID too, not just health care financing, where as few as 5-10% of infected patients are transmitting to 80% of the total infected population #healthpolicy https://stateofreform.com/covid-19/2020/05/how-the-80-20-rule-may-apply-to-covid-infection-and-transmission/
That means in some states, the number of "super spreaders" could have been very, very low. Tracking of genomes could lead us to uncover specific demographic, geographic, or economic trends which could help us understand transmission.
Privacy will always be a concern, of course, and we don't want to get into a place where folks are shamed for being sick. That's morally backwards and corrupt. But, using big data to help identify trends and perhaps predict future spread would be very helpful.
For example, in Oregon, the current infection rate of 4,000 means as few as about 200 folks may have generated the spread to about 3,200 individuals in the state. #orleg
In Colorado, where about 25k infections have been confirmed, this means about 1,250 folks could have infected 20,000 Coloradans #coleg
Variations could exist, of course. I'm just pulling these numbers from the data and pre-prints identified in the story above. But, this is really important information. As this pandemic recedes, and an after action report is written...
Using big data to learn from the characteristics of super spreader could help support a range of mitigation strategies, including some genome-specific mitigation support to limit the impact of super spreaders. What I mean by that is this:
Personalized, genome-specific medicine is already a burgeoning field, particularly in cancer research and medicine. Places like the Knight Institute at OHSU or Seattle Cancer Care Alliance, for example. They are leading in the research in the space. https://www.ohsu.edu/knight-cancer-institute
If we learn that super spreaders are folks that simply use public transit a lot, and that the characteristic that catalyzes spread is an economic activity, a medicine response isn't warranted. An economic policy response would be. That may be the case in NY with crowded subways
But if we find out that part of our genetic make up, for example, toggles particular protein generation that supports or catalyzes COVID spread, perhaps there is a pathway there for precision medicine to step in. And, that might be a much faster, and even much safer way...
...than vaccine development. Perhaps if we are trying to solve for mitigation strategies for the few super spreaders, it would be an easier approach than trying to solve for perfectly safe and effective for the many (like billions many).
That's it. That's the tweet. Anyway, this is what started this thread. https://stateofreform.com/covid-19/2020/05/how-the-80-20-rule-may-apply-to-covid-infection-and-transmission/
