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We have just issued the first of two updates to @CrisisGroup’s #WatchList2020.
It identifies 5 major crises and conflicts where the EU and its Member States can improve stability and foster stronger prospects for peace.
So what is new since our January edition?
THREAD:
It identifies 5 major crises and conflicts where the EU and its Member States can improve stability and foster stronger prospects for peace.
So what is new since our January edition?
THREAD:
2.
Easy: back in January, #COVID19 had not yet changed the world.
Today, Europe is one of the regions hit hardest by the pandemic. It's immediate and global impact has been more disruptive than any other crisis over the past decade.
Easy: back in January, #COVID19 had not yet changed the world.
Today, Europe is one of the regions hit hardest by the pandemic. It's immediate and global impact has been more disruptive than any other crisis over the past decade.
3.
Amid border closures, lockdowns and trade restrictions, the #EU was forced to look inwards while the new leadership's geopolitical ambitions were curbed.
But the EU reacted effectively, rebuilding internal solidarity and working to mitigate the virus' impact.
Amid border closures, lockdowns and trade restrictions, the #EU was forced to look inwards while the new leadership's geopolitical ambitions were curbed.
But the EU reacted effectively, rebuilding internal solidarity and working to mitigate the virus' impact.
4.
But more is needed. The virus carries the potential to bring further suffering and instability to already fragile contexts.
Europe should resist the temptation to look inward and stay at the forefront of conflict prevention efforts.
Here @CrisisGroup's five guideposts:
But more is needed. The virus carries the potential to bring further suffering and instability to already fragile contexts.
Europe should resist the temptation to look inward and stay at the forefront of conflict prevention efforts.
Here @CrisisGroup's five guideposts:
5.
Tensions in #CotedIvoire are building up along political and ethnic lines as elections for the succession to President Ouattara draw near.
As politicians debate over the election management, the opposition has denounced attempts of intimidation.
Tensions in #CotedIvoire are building up along political and ethnic lines as elections for the succession to President Ouattara draw near.
As politicians debate over the election management, the opposition has denounced attempts of intimidation.
6.
In #CotedIvoire the #EU should:
Push for dialogue between government and opposition
Maximise chances for credible and transparent elections
Stand ready to monitor the vote
In #CotedIvoire the #EU should:
Push for dialogue between government and opposition Maximise chances for credible and transparent elections Stand ready to monitor the vote
7.
#Myanmar is at the centre of three overlapping crises: the Rohingya crisis, the Arakan Army insurgency, and the desperate situation for displaced populations both within the country and in Bangladesh.
The virus has already entered refugee camps.
#Myanmar is at the centre of three overlapping crises: the Rohingya crisis, the Arakan Army insurgency, and the desperate situation for displaced populations both within the country and in Bangladesh.
The virus has already entered refugee camps.
8.
In #Myanmar the #EU should:
Increase diplomatic pressure with international partners
Maintain significant humanitarian funding
Continue to support Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh
In #Myanmar the #EU should:
Increase diplomatic pressure with international partners Maintain significant humanitarian funding Continue to support Rohingya refugees in Bangladesh
9.
The situation in #Syria is fragile and could break down at any point, right at Europe’s doorstep.
#COVID19 risks further compounding the humanitarian crisis, while Idlib remains the theatre of a potential disaster.
Russian-Turkish ceasefires have repeatedly broken down.
The situation in #Syria is fragile and could break down at any point, right at Europe’s doorstep.
#COVID19 risks further compounding the humanitarian crisis, while Idlib remains the theatre of a potential disaster.
Russian-Turkish ceasefires have repeatedly broken down.
10.
The #EU wants to avert ISIS resurgence and further suffering in #Syria. It should:
Increase support for detention centres holding foreign fighters
Continue to press Turkey for a truce in the NE
Make humanitarian preparations for #COVID19 or an attack to Idlib
The #EU wants to avert ISIS resurgence and further suffering in #Syria. It should:
Increase support for detention centres holding foreign fighters Continue to press Turkey for a truce in the NE Make humanitarian preparations for #COVID19 or an attack to Idlib
11.
#Yemen is already the site of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Fighting is again on the rise, and the looming economic crisis will aggravate the conflict.
The coronavirus risks further wrecking its collapsing health system.
#Yemen is already the site of the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. Fighting is again on the rise, and the looming economic crisis will aggravate the conflict.
The coronavirus risks further wrecking its collapsing health system.
12.
There, the #EU should:
Increase humanitarian aid and make it its priority for the global #COVID19 response
Call for a broader and more inclusive peace process
Step-up direct diplomatic contacts with conflict parties
There, the #EU should:
Increase humanitarian aid and make it its priority for the global #COVID19 response Call for a broader and more inclusive peace process Step-up direct diplomatic contacts with conflict parties
13.
#Venezuela has been spared the worst of the virus, but the humanitarian emergency and political crisis persist, displacing more than 5.5m people.
The EU and Spain hosted the #Together4Venezuelans conference for the region. Yet a resolution to the standoff in Caracas is far.
#Venezuela has been spared the worst of the virus, but the humanitarian emergency and political crisis persist, displacing more than 5.5m people.
The EU and Spain hosted the #Together4Venezuelans conference for the region. Yet a resolution to the standoff in Caracas is far.
14.
In order to foster prospects of a resolution, the #EU should:
Build international pressure to push for a release of aid funds held by the opposition
Reactivate the International Contact Group
Help mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions to #Venezuela’s population
In order to foster prospects of a resolution, the #EU should:
Build international pressure to push for a release of aid funds held by the opposition Reactivate the International Contact Group Help mitigate the impact of U.S. sanctions to #Venezuela’s population
15.
This is not all. #COVID19 magnifies conflict drivers in already fragile contexts.
More areas will require a stronger international engagement to prevent new crises and old ones escalating.
The #EU can play an essential role in this global effort.
This is not all. #COVID19 magnifies conflict drivers in already fragile contexts.
More areas will require a stronger international engagement to prevent new crises and old ones escalating.
The #EU can play an essential role in this global effort.
https://www.crisisgroup.org/global/watch-list-2020-spring-edition
Europe should balance the imperative of caring for its own citizens and economies with remaining engaged abroad.
These are @CrisisGroup’s recommendations on how to do so
#WatchList200
Europe should balance the imperative of caring for its own citizens and economies with remaining engaged abroad.
These are @CrisisGroup’s recommendations on how to do so
#WatchList200
