Live with Goldman.

They are talking COVID-19 and GDP/economy risk.

Major downside risk of an expected second wave of infections, so it's nearly impossible to project the state of the economy through the rest of the year.

Q3 projected to be decent on openings - then downhill.

They are expecting 25% unemployment by June for U3. Up to 35% for U6, which is devastating.

They also believe that the "real numbers" for unemployment are far higher than is being reported due to confusion with data (shocker!) and inconsistencies in the way job losses are calculated and data is gathered.

They are expecting continued and significant drops.

They are openly admitting that almost every projection for the economy, unemployment rate and virus are overoptimistic. Basically, everyone is looking at the unlikely best-case scenario, when the reality is that there will almost certainly be a second wave of viral infections.

"Not a depression."

More like a hurricane (LOL) that lasts a really long time.

Ok...

The expectation is that Congress will pass another 1.5 Trillion package. This increases the deficit to 21% of GDP for 2020 and 11% for 2021. "They are obviously enormous numbers" but are the "necessary price to be paid" to prevent a further downturn.

Moving into Monetary Policy Response.

I expect an epic Fed/Goldman circle jerk.

“It’s all ahead of us. The amount that has gone
out so far, in the context of the US economy, is
fairly modest.” – Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, when asked about the amount of funding that has been
released through current programs thus far,
Senate hearing, May 19

LOLOLOL

They have 0 concerns about inflation or debasing the US Dollar.

As long as those dollars are being used, who cares?

They are more concerned with DEFLATION. Inflation risk is asymmetric. Outcomes of inflation = better than deflation.

Not what Bitcoiners want to hear.

Negative "real" interest rates are good for the economy - and we effectively have them now when adjusted for inflation.

Negative "nominal" interest rates have limited upside, potentially some downside for the financial system and thus unlikely in the US.

Peter Schiff in disbelief.

Clear evidence that stocks are better than gold in almost every economic environment.

Over time gold has barely outperformed inflation with a real return of 1.0% before cost of storage and insurance, compared to 2.7% for 10-year US Treasuries.

Just put the puke bucket by my desk, they mentioned Bitcoin for the first time.

They are aggressively shitting on gold.

"Gold Does Not Offer Reliable Downside Protection"

Bitcoin:

 Do Not Generate Cash Flow Like Bonds
 Do Not Generate any Earnings Through Exposure to Global Economic Growth
 Do Not Provide Consistent Diversification Benefits Given Their Unstable Correlations
 Do Not Dampen Volatility Given Historical Volatility of 76%

On March 12, 2020, the price of Bitcoin fell 37% in one day.

"We want our clients to know just how volatile this asset really is."

 We believe that a security whose appreciation is primarily dependent on whether someone
else is willing to pay a higher price for it is not a suitable investment for our clients.

 We also believe that while hedge funds may find trading cryptocurrencies appealing
because of their high volatility, that allure does not constitute a viable investment rationale.

Though individual cryptocurrencies have limited supplies, cryptocurrencies as a whole are not a scarce resource. For
example, three of the largest six cryptocurrencies are forks—i.e., nearly identical clones—of Bitcoin (Bitcoin, Bitcoin
Cash, and Bitcoin SV).

An entire page on this... "Cryptocurrency Can Be a Conduit for Illicit Activity."

Drinking that haterade.

"Bitcoin is arbitrary, random and volatile."

"The Cryptocurrency Mania Dwarfed Historical Manias"

We have compared $BTC and $ETH, two of the largest cryptocurrencies by market cap, to the Gouda variety of tulip bulbs and to the equity bubbles in the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and the TOPIX. In the year prior to their
peaks:

Nasdaq rallied 109%
– Tulip prices jumped 485%
– Bitcoin rose 2,292%
– Ether rallied 14,193%.

Ouch. The Mania was real.

That's all, folks. Call is finished. Clearly, they only discussed gold and bitcoin because their clients were asking.

My only real takeaway is nobody knows shit and the stock market is manipulated. Thanks for attending.

And this, as the coup de grace of Goldman’s hate for crypto.

https://twitter.com/davidjnage/status/1265667355998400512?s=21 https://twitter.com/davidjnage/status/1265667355998400512