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So continuing my ADP review I’m taking a look at the high priced assets that fell significantly from May 2019 to May 2020 in ADP (all ADP data from DLF). Below are all the players that were in the top 30 in May 2019 ADP but fell outside of the top 50 in May 2020 ADP

Todd Gurley -43 (10 to 53) 25 years old
Melvin Gordon -49 (11 to 60) 27 years old
James Conner -71 (14 to 85) 25 years old
David Johnson -75 (16 to 91) 28 years old
Le’Veon Bell -52 (17 to 69) 28 years old
Antonio Brown
Brandin Cooks -55 (27 to 82) 26 years old

Ertz -39 (28 to 67) 29 years old
Kerryon -81 (29 to 110) 22 years old
Adam Thielen -35 (30 to 65) 29 years old
I’ve removed Antonio Brown from this list as he is a unique situation.

Looking at this list of players I’m going to try and identify potential fallers. The individual players form the above list all fell for individual reasons but as a general rule they fell because they either aged and/or got injured or lost their role with their unit.

Who are the candidates to fall out of this year’s top 30? Well the most notable change in this year’s top 30 compared to 2019 is the prevalence of the rookies. Last year the highest rookie was Jacobs with an ADP of 34.

Whereas this year there are 5 rookies inside that top 30 with CEH, JT, Dobbins, Swift and Akers. And a big overall reduction in those older veterans with only 4 players aged 26+ inside the top 30: Thomas, Davante, Hopkins and Odell.

So who do I think are the potential options to fall out of that top 30. (note i love most of these guys I'm just taking a stab at identifying the few guys who may be in their final window to sell them at the peak of their value)

DeAndre Hopkins. Aged 27 with an ADP of 7. I’ll be honest I’m a little concerned. Now I still 100% believe in the talent and think he’s arguably the best receiver in the league. However, I just can’t buy a WR on a new team is going to still be a top dynasty asset in 2021

Unless a receiver is seeing a clear uptick in QB play and/or target volume you have to project a downturn in overall production. To me Watson > Kyler. Yes AZ will be a high volume offence but I just can’t see an uptick in targets. He’s over 150 targets every year since 2014.

Derrick Henry. Aged 25 with an ADP of 22. I’ll be honest I’m a massive Derrick Henry owner. I’ve held him in multiple spots since taking him as a top 2 pick back in 2016 and reaped the rewards as he demolished teams the back end of last year.

All that being said a player with his running style playing on the franchise tag as a 2nd round startup asset scares me. Would anyone be hugely surprised if the Titans ran henry into the ground this year and then let him walk in free agency?

I think Henry will have a huge 2020 season but if we’re fast forwarding to May 2021 can anyone honestly say they’d be that surprised to see him fall outside the top 50?

Austin Ekeler. Age 25 with an ADP of 25. How many people rode Austin Ekeler to a fantasy title last year? And how many people are super hyped for him this year and beyond! They resigned him, let Gordon walk, didn’t draft anyone on day 1 or 2 what’s to be worried about?

So honest truth I’m a big contract guy. I find them fascinating and certainly think they’re an underrated tool in a dynasty players arsenal for establishing value. RB contracts are super challenging because the great majority are still on rookie contracts.

Now the chargers just paid ekeler! But my point is did they? He signed what is essentially a 2 year 13.75m contract. That puts him in the cap hit range of Mark Ingram, Giovanni Bernard, Tevin Coleman and Jordan Howard.

Combine that with the fact the Chargers just lost the most RB pass happy QB in the league (where Ekeler picks up most of his value) and I for one am concerned he won’t live up to last years highs and will be tumbling down the ADP list come next year.

So pretty much everyone agrees the tier 1 of dynasty RBs. With tier 2 primarily being Kamara, Zeke and Dalvin Cook? Now having seen Gurley, Gordon, Conner, DJ and Lev Bell all fall off a cliff value wise last year I’m concerned the end isn’t too far away for these 3.

I think that all 3 of these guys will be championship winning players this year as elite RB1 options. However if you aren’t truly a contender (and you have to be real honest with yourself) could this offseason be your last opportunity to sell at the absolute peak of their value?

Cook and Kamara are free agents after this season. Could they be on a new team next year and in a similar situation to Melvin Gordon? I love all three if you’re a contender this year. But if you’re not 100% you’ve got to be selling this offseason or risk never receiving top value

@SWallace_FF @KL_Fantasy @FFMiz1 @dynasty_goat @MattFFDynasty @fantasy_nfluk What do you guys think?