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@michaeljpwalton and I have a new paper out in India Review which looks at the economic performance of Modi 1.0 and considers how Modi 2.0 might play out. Many of the ideas we discussed in this paper have accelerated considerably post Covid-19 …https://9d906a80-0fdd-44b6-aafb-eb58c07c85c4.filesusr.com/ugd/ad095a_9ed31019c1f94bdc883446ac535eecb8.pdf">https://9d906a80-0fdd-44b6-aafb-eb58c07c85c4.filesusr.com/ugd/ad095... https://twitter.com/MilanV/status/1263120495953797130">https://twitter.com/MilanV/st...
The government has been pushing major changes in creating a "bad bank" and asset reconstruction. https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/how-the-idea-of-a-bad-bank-made-a-comeback">https://www.bloombergquint.com/business/...
The corporate tax cuts from last year have been largely ineffective at raising revenue, basically benefiting earnings of large corporations https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/tax-cut-widens-gap-between-high-fliers-and-laggards-in-corporate-earnings-120021800028_1.html">https://www.business-standard.com/article/c...
As @bhargavizaveri and coauthors have been arguing, the IBC reforms have been a mixed bag with exclusions and exceptions, in addition to major delays in resolution. With post-Covid extensions, it is an open question how the next spate of likely bankruptcies will be resolved
One thing is clear; this has been a bad decade for competition in India. As Krishna Kant had pointed out in @bsindia , industrial concentration is up across the board. https://www.business-standard.com/article/economy-policy/winner-takes-all-big-fish-swallow-the-small-ones-amid-demand-slowdown-120032001660_1.html">https://www.business-standard.com/article/e...
And as @shreya_jai and @shinejac had pointed out, the indebtedness of PSUs has risen considerably and much of the planned infrastructural expansion is on the back of PSU debt which is reaching historic levels. https://www.business-standard.com/article/companies/india-s-leading-psus-stare-at-weak-balance-sheet-and-rising-debt-119082700047_1.html">https://www.business-standard.com/article/c...
The Indian economy was already on shaky ground when Modi 1.0 came into power. By the time Modi 2.0 began, institutional weakening in both finance and regulation (particularly CCI) has left India& #39;s future looking more like Latin America than East Asia. And then Covid hit.
This paper splits the difference between the more academic state-capitalism literature and the exceptional blow-by-blow daily reporting done by India& #39;s business journalists. Might be useful for anyone trying to find a good summary of economic developments in the last few years.
Thanks to @MilanV and @bilalabaloch for inviting me to contribute. @mostlyeconomics @ChinmayTumbe @andymukherjee70 @CPR_India @AiyarYamini @NeelanjanSircar @ananthng @hemantmanuj @srinathraghava3 @suyashrai @kaul_vivek @pujamehra
