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I& #39;ve revised my Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) from the Spanish Antibody Study to make it more accurate
Main changes:
1) data from different dates to correspond with when samples were taken
2) added confirmed cases to the denominator
3) added probable deaths into the final IFRs
Main changes:
1) data from different dates to correspond with when samples were taken
2) added confirmed cases to the denominator
3) added probable deaths into the final IFRs
Change 1: New data period to coincide with actual dates the serological samples were taken. Samples were taken over a 15 day period between April 27 and May 11.
Based on this chart I chose 18 days as an offset where positive rate for IgG is close to 100%.
Based on this chart I chose 18 days as an offset where positive rate for IgG is close to 100%.
Change 1 (cont): Because samples were gathered across 15 days, I chose a period offset by 18 days but also covering a 15 day period.
Therefore I took the data for all 15 days between April 9 (18 Days before April 27) and April 23 (18 days before May 5) and created an average.
Therefore I took the data for all 15 days between April 9 (18 Days before April 27) and April 23 (18 days before May 5) and created an average.
Change 1 (cont): Is it correct to use 18 days? A little more than half will have antibodies by the end of one week.
BUT, keep in mind the chart is from symptom onset and "Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure" https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir...
BUT, keep in mind the chart is from symptom onset and "Symptoms may appear 2-14 days after exposure" https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/symptoms-testing/symptoms.html">https://www.cdc.gov/coronavir...
Change 2: I added confirmed cases to the total infected population predicted by AB testing.
So projected number of infected as per AB testing + confirmed cases is now the new Denominator
So projected number of infected as per AB testing + confirmed cases is now the new Denominator
Change 3: I added the probable deaths into the total deaths that make up the Numerator.
Over the 15 day period, and also thereafter there is a pretty consistent number of probable deaths so the number isn& #39;t growing.
Over the 15 day period, and also thereafter there is a pretty consistent number of probable deaths so the number isn& #39;t growing.
Change 3 (cont): Last day this data is available (5/18) there were 8523 probable deaths.
The average for the 15 days was 8678.
But on May 25th they revised deaths down by 1915 so I subtracted this from the total probable deaths bc unconfirmed deaths is where they would cut
The average for the 15 days was 8678.
But on May 25th they revised deaths down by 1915 so I subtracted this from the total probable deaths bc unconfirmed deaths is where they would cut
Change 3 (cont): So that left me with 6763 probable deaths which I redistributed proportionally based on the percentage of total deaths each group represented.
Finally, here are the sources:
Spain AB Study: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-05-13/solo-un-5-de-los-espanoles-se-han-contagiado-de-coronavirus-segun-los-primeros-datos-del-estudio-de-prevalencia.html">https://elpais.com/sociedad/...
Population: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/spain-population/
Case">https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries... Data:
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_71_COVID-19.pdf">https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesion... other 14, change the 71 +1 to get next day
Antibody prevalence data: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0897-1
Original">https://www.nature.com/articles/... chart https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1262453620735385605?s=20">https://twitter.com/gummibear...
Spain AB Study: https://elpais.com/sociedad/2020-05-13/solo-un-5-de-los-espanoles-se-han-contagiado-de-coronavirus-segun-los-primeros-datos-del-estudio-de-prevalencia.html">https://elpais.com/sociedad/...
Population: https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries/spain-population/
Case">https://worldpopulationreview.com/countries... Data:
https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesionales/saludPublica/ccayes/alertasActual/nCov-China/documentos/Actualizacion_71_COVID-19.pdf">https://www.mscbs.gob.es/profesion... other 14, change the 71 +1 to get next day
Antibody prevalence data: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0897-1
Original">https://www.nature.com/articles/... chart https://twitter.com/gummibear737/status/1262453620735385605?s=20">https://twitter.com/gummibear...
