THREAD: On why the Cummings affair is so politically dangerous for the Tories.

TLDR: People really think fairness is important, many key Tory voters think laws should always be obeyed and it plays into existing suspicions that there is one rule for the rich and one for the poor.

In his 2015 report “Overlooked but decisive”, James Frayne found that the most important values to those surveyed in marginal constituencies – across all social classes - were Family and Fairness.

The government have tried to play into “Family” values over the Cummings affair by portraying his actions as those of a concerned parent. Problem is, there's around 120,000 other families who have been in the same situation, i.e. child under 5, at least one parent sick.

The vast majority of those families obeyed the regulations to self-isolate and stay at home “to the best of their ability” as the rules state. They did not drive to the other end of the country whilst infected, without even *trying* to sort out childcare nearer their home.

The Tories already have a problem with how they are perceived over “Fairness”. In an otherwise damning set of numbers for @Ashcroftpolls after GE2019, Labour still came ahead of the Tories on which party “stands for fairness”.

Meanwhile the British Social Attitudes Survey found 58% think there is “one rule for the rich and another for the poor”. It also asks if “the law should be obeyed even when a particular law is wrong”. @p_surridge has done a fascinating analysis on this https://medium.com/@psurridge/values-voters-and-the-law-b9d22f48c7eb

She finds 9 out of 10 Leavers who voted Labour in 2017 agree with one or other of the statements – these 2017 Labour Leavers were one of the key groups that swung the last election for the Tories.

But there is a strong streak of right-wing libertarianism in the Tory party, as demonstrated by both this affair *and* remarks such as Jacob Rees-Mogg saying that Grenfell victims should have used their "common sense", i.e. rules are less important than individual "instinct".

Labour Remainers are the most likely group to agree that laws can sometimes be broken, but they presumably envisage disadvantaged groups breaking laws which discriminate against them, rather than a privileged government adviser driving to Durham.

Whereas many of the Tories’ key voters believe in rules. Attempts to fit the attacks on Cummings into a “culture war” narrative are misguided – his detractors are an alliance of many social conservatives with those on the economic left (including both liberals and conservatives).

This episode will confirm the belief many voters hold that there is “one rule for the rich and another for the poor”, and also suggests that the Tories disagree with some of their key socially conservative voters who think rules shouldn't be subject to individual interpretation.

With the Tories already struggling to be perceived as “fair”, this affair gives Labour a powerful narrative: ordinary people have made sacrifices in order to abide by rules that the Tories disregard. This could be significant in 2024.