Been thinking overnight re Cummings.

Strategically there are a few issues.

If PM gets his way this time then backbenchers are disabled for a long time. 35+ realise this.

Challenging Johnson becomes a real problem for them at a time when some are questioning his ability.

Allowing Cummings a platform on Monday has opened up a range of issues about the role in UK of SpAds. Giving him oxygen has fundamentally shifted that role, set a precedent for the future.

That is exactly what Cummings wants, to change how Govt works. Remember Javid.

The cabinet has been totally undermined imo. Being frog marched out to defend the PMs employee is demeaning and they have compromised their position. Johnson and Cummings have them by the short and curlies now. They have to be obedient (despite what they might think)

The whole farrago has given Cummings the chance to pursue the agenda he & his cronies have of exceptionalism for certain people - the chosen ones. Make no mistake even in a crisis like this they will be thinking how can we send a message. They did. 'No regret, no apology'

As for the Tory Party, well it's in a bad place. They now realise they are stuck with Johnson. He is quickly becoming poison with the electorate. They are not fools and the polls are already showing that. Yes 4.5 years to election but it will be known as Cummings Law election.

Yes, I have gone in for a bit of what ifery. However, my experience tells me that in a crisis like this you should think about the strategic consequences quickly and move to anticipate them or mitigate where you can.

I still think there is a chance to mitigate this short term by showing Tory members the damage this is doing to their party. Allied to which if they go for No Deal, as they seem to be determined to do, that would be catastrophic for them now confidence in Johnson has seeped away.

And I forgot to say . All the time Johnson and Cummings spent together discussing what happened was not about the detail. That would have been 5 mins. The majority of the time would have been on how do we use this strategically. That's the way they work.