Why I believe this season could be historical: A thread

2020 has been harsh to say the least as the coronavirus is still raging throughout the world. Now on top of that we are entering a very dangerous time of the year, The 2020 Atlantic hurricane season. And this year is shaping up to be a very big on and I'll explain why

First we must take a look at not the Atlantic but the pacific ocean for clues on what the Atlantic season holds and if you look at ocean temps in the pacific they are dropping drastically meaning we are either entering a Enso neutral or possible weak to moderate La Nina

This is a bad thing because it helps reduce the shear in the Atlantic ocean. Which if you don't know already shear hinders tropical development and if a La Nina takes effect this limiting factor for hurricanes will be much less than normal

Giving hurricanes more of a chance of organizing and not being killed or weakened. Another reason is the ocean temps currently and later in the season are looking to be higher than normal. Which of course permits hurricanes and hurricanes becoming very strong.

My third reason is the West African monsoon is expected to be stronger this season meaning more tropical waves coming of the west coast of Africa and adding more tropical waves means higher chances that one of these waves will become a hurricane or tropical storm.

We've also been in an active stretch for hurricanes that started in 1995 ever since then we've averaged 12 named storms 6 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes each year for the Atlantic. And according to NOAA there is a 60% chance of an above normal season.

They are predicting 13-19 named storms 6-10 hurricanes and 3-6 major hurricanes. there is also a 30% chance of a near normal season and only 10% chance of a below normal season.

I personally think this season could be the most active season since 2005. Now will it be as bad or worse, probably not but that's not saying much 2005 was unprecedentedly horrific and a hyper active season that changed so many lives forever.

But last time I checked 2005 didn't have a global pandemic occurring while the season is going on. That's my next topic a want to touch base on. My fear is that many people will refuse to leave there homes in fear of catching the Novel-coronavirus.

Then when a hurricane rolls around it puts people in almost more peril than if they just left their homes. Let alone a lot of people already like to downplay the threat of hurricanes which is not just stupid ITS DANGEROUS.

NOW is the time to revise your plan to include social distancing orders in your hurricane plan before the season kicks off June 1st.

Now is the part where I tell you my predictions for the season.
Named storms: 14-20/ average is 12
Hurricanes: 8-12/ average is 6
Major hurricanes: 4-7/ average is 3
To wrap it up I believe this season will be a very active and potentially dangerous season.

And you need to be prepared for this season hitting right in the middle of a global pandemic.
If you read this thread all the way I thank you for your time.
(END)