Watching @SteveKornacki go through the Trump vs. Biden numbers among seniors, whom Biden has flipped completely vs. 2016. And that was even before COVID. The fact is: Biden is positioned perfectly for an "exhaustion" election, where people crave calm, competence and normalcy.

"Exhaustion" is a type of "change" election, except that it is a desire for a change to LESS DRASTIC CHANGE; less drama. And toward a more "traditional" kind of president. Biden is not a woman (so no Clinton "woman seeking power" problem), he is white and he is a traditional Dem.

It's hard to imagine how Trump regains the advantage over Biden (who is also a literal "regular Joe" type about whom people can easily feel like "we know him." People also thought they knew Trump from the Apprentice but he has turned out to be very, very different from his brand.

The "we know Joe" sensibility is what @DrJasonJohnson talked about last year when he predicted Biden would be the nominee. He is the type of politician who is hard to redefine because he seems like a known quantity. So even new, negative information doesn't really impact him.

Biden just has to keep coming across and calm and reasonable and competent, and not make major mistakes that could let Trump shave off pieces of the Dem base. Trump's own chaos is doing the rest of the job. Here's a good piece on their competing messages: https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/why-trumps-new-campaign-slogan-transition-to-greatness-sends-a-disastrous-message#intcid=recommendations_vf-trending-legacy_6a5022d2-a68a-4518-9948-6dab2c8f3ee6_popular4-1