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Is Hakeem Butler the most beloved day 3 pick that missed his entire rookie season of all time?
Every time I post about Christian Kirk being a smash at his current ADP it feels like I have 100's of people pointing at that Butler is coming....
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Every time I post about Christian Kirk being a smash at his current ADP it feels like I have 100's of people pointing at that Butler is coming....
(thread)
Butler was a day 3 pick. Day 3 picks very RARELY become fantasy contributors.
Butler has an age 21 Breakout age.
Those combine for an 8.3% hit rate of a single top 24 season.
Butler has an age 21 Breakout age.
Those combine for an 8.3% hit rate of a single top 24 season.
Conversely Kirk was a 2nd round pick with an age 18 breakout age.
That alone gives him a 46.2% hit rate.
That alone gives him a 46.2% hit rate.
Then Kirk was highly efficient as a rookie in the WR2 chair behind Larry Fitzgerald with JOSH ROSEN at qb.
Rosen's yards per attempt that year were 5.79
Kirk's yards per target were 8.7
Substantially outplaying his situation.
Rosen's yards per attempt that year were 5.79
Kirk's yards per target were 8.7
Substantially outplaying his situation.
After dominating in college for three years while playing with another NFL WR Kirk immediately commanded a 20.4% target share as a 21 year old rookie.
He also had a 2.03 yards per route run in that Rosen led attack.
He also had a 2.03 yards per route run in that Rosen led attack.
Then as a sophomore he took control of the number 1 role in the offense with a 24.5% target share, faced #1 cb's all year, and was basically bang on team effieciency as Kyler had a 6.8 yards per attempt and Kirk had a 6.6 yards per target.
Not to mention he suffered a high ankle sprain in week 4 which takes 6 weeks to 3 months to fully heal.
He missed two games and played through it for the rest of the season.
HIgh ankle sprains are a very production prohibitive injury.
He missed two games and played through it for the rest of the season.
HIgh ankle sprains are a very production prohibitive injury.
You are correct if you want to say that Kirk was inefficient last season. The whole offense was. Kyler is better than Rosen for sure, but he was still an inefficient rookie QB.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins will slide Kirk back into the #2 role which he was wildly efficient from as a rookie while knocking down his target share probably closer to his rookie year of 20%.
Now tying this back to 4th round pick Hakeem Butler whom has done ZERO in the NFL... Does it really make sense that he takes ADDITIONAL targets from Kirk?
Butler was already a long shot before he missed his rookie season.
WRs that face plant for any reason are largely irrelevant for the rest of their careers regardless of draft capital
Most of these guys faded into oblivion and most weren't day 3 picks. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1204990224444444672?s=20
WRs that face plant for any reason are largely irrelevant for the rest of their careers regardless of draft capital
Most of these guys faded into oblivion and most weren't day 3 picks. https://twitter.com/DFBeanCounter/status/1204990224444444672?s=20
Hoping for Hakeem Butler to pan out predraft was a long shot.
Continuing to hope after the NFL draft was absurd
Continuing to hope after he missed his entire rookie year is asinine
Continuing to hope after the NFL draft was absurd
Continuing to hope after he missed his entire rookie year is asinine
Fading Christian Kirk because of Hakeem Butler is unforgiveable 
