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Disregarding the first 1/2 of 2019 as a "settling period" & extrapolating just the last 8 games of the 2019 WR class to get an idea of a ~Year 2 floor:
[A THREAD]
(For this information to be relevant, we have to assume most WR& #39;s can duplicate their end-of-Year-1 pace in Year 2)
[A THREAD]
(For this information to be relevant, we have to assume most WR& #39;s can duplicate their end-of-Year-1 pace in Year 2)
Hollywood (RD 1)
With Hollywood’s foot getting worse late in the year, this exercise doesn’t apply. Instead, look at games where he played < 45 snaps.
(6 Games)
WK2: 8/86
WK3: 2/49
WK4: 4/22
WK12: 5/42/2
WK15: 4/45/1
DIV: 7/126
Total: 30/370/3
16-game pace: 80/986/8
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">
With Hollywood’s foot getting worse late in the year, this exercise doesn’t apply. Instead, look at games where he played < 45 snaps.
(6 Games)
WK2: 8/86
WK3: 2/49
WK4: 4/22
WK12: 5/42/2
WK15: 4/45/1
DIV: 7/126
Total: 30/370/3
16-game pace: 80/986/8
N’Keal Harry (RD 1)
This exercise doesn’t work for Harry either…
He was hurt & his only 8 games were the last 8. His snap % was also too low for the #& #39;s here to actually mean anything...
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Not off to a good start, are we?
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Don& #39;t worry, it gets better from here.
This exercise doesn’t work for Harry either…
He was hurt & his only 8 games were the last 8. His snap % was also too low for the #& #39;s here to actually mean anything...
Not off to a good start, are we?
Don& #39;t worry, it gets better from here.
Deebo Samuel (RD 2)
I’m going to expand Deebo’s sample size by including the 3 playoff games as well. There wasn& #39;t a drastic enough change in the playoffs to throw those games out.
Last 11 games:
45/702/2
15/224/2 Rushing
16-game pace:
65/1021/3
22/325/3 Rushing
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">
I’m going to expand Deebo’s sample size by including the 3 playoff games as well. There wasn& #39;t a drastic enough change in the playoffs to throw those games out.
Last 11 games:
45/702/2
15/224/2 Rushing
16-game pace:
65/1021/3
22/325/3 Rushing
AJB (RD 2)
Not including playoffs.
29 attempts TOTAL first 2 RD& #39;s is too circumstantial.
Last 8:
30/703/5
2/62/1 Rushing
16-game pace:
60/1406/10
4/124/2
Make any case for regression you want , but do we really care if the REC& #39;s are modest when he can do things like that?
Not including playoffs.
29 attempts TOTAL first 2 RD& #39;s is too circumstantial.
Last 8:
30/703/5
2/62/1 Rushing
16-game pace:
60/1406/10
4/124/2
Make any case for regression you want , but do we really care if the REC& #39;s are modest when he can do things like that?
Mecole (RD 2)
Last 8:
6/164/2
2/16 Rushing
*1 KR TD
16-game pace:
12/328/4
4/32
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Mecole& #39;s role dried up w/ Reek back WK 6.
6 REC& #39;s/8 games is worrisome, at best, & makes his 2020 redraft (standalone) value look iffy.
Last 8:
6/164/2
2/16 Rushing
*1 KR TD
16-game pace:
12/328/4
4/32
Mecole& #39;s role dried up w/ Reek back WK 6.
6 REC& #39;s/8 games is worrisome, at best, & makes his 2020 redraft (standalone) value look iffy.
Parris (RD 2)
Campbell was hurt before the season, never topped 45% of the snaps through the first 3 weeks & only played 4 more games after that.
So, look at the 3 games he played at least 49% of the snaps:
WK 4: 5/25/8 TGT (63%)
WK 9: 5/53/5 TGT (62%)
WK 12: 3/12/5 TGT (49%)
Campbell was hurt before the season, never topped 45% of the snaps through the first 3 weeks & only played 4 more games after that.
So, look at the 3 games he played at least 49% of the snaps:
WK 4: 5/25/8 TGT (63%)
WK 9: 5/53/5 TGT (62%)
WK 12: 3/12/5 TGT (49%)
Isabella (RD 2)
It’s haaaarrrd to make any sort of case for Andy’s rookie year, but he did catch 7/181/1 in the last 8 after not recording his 1st REC until Week 7... a 14/362/2 pace.
I guess that makes him look a little teeny tiny bit better…
Maybe?
No?
Didn’t think so…
It’s haaaarrrd to make any sort of case for Andy’s rookie year, but he did catch 7/181/1 in the last 8 after not recording his 1st REC until Week 7... a 14/362/2 pace.
I guess that makes him look a little teeny tiny bit better…
Maybe?
No?
Didn’t think so…
DK Metcalf (RD 2)
Including playoffs.
SEA& #39;s approach in those games seems 100% reproducible.
Last 10:
46/717/4
16-game pace:
73/1147/6
DK& #39;s TD pace actually decreased in the second-half of the year.
But from Week 9 on, he balled like a 75 REC/1,150 YD WR would…
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">
Including playoffs.
SEA& #39;s approach in those games seems 100% reproducible.
Last 10:
46/717/4
16-game pace:
73/1147/6
DK& #39;s TD pace actually decreased in the second-half of the year.
But from Week 9 on, he balled like a 75 REC/1,150 YD WR would…
Diontae (RD 3)
Last 8:
33/381/2
2/33 Rushing
16-game pace:
66/762/4
4/66
DJ also saw his TD’s drop in the second-half, which probably isn’t typical for rookie WR’s.
He really had 5 TD& #39;s.
His 16-game pace should be considered his 2020 floor, at the absolute bare minimum.
Last 8:
33/381/2
2/33 Rushing
16-game pace:
66/762/4
4/66
DJ also saw his TD’s drop in the second-half, which probably isn’t typical for rookie WR’s.
He really had 5 TD& #39;s.
His 16-game pace should be considered his 2020 floor, at the absolute bare minimum.
Terry (RD 3)
Last 8:
34/500/2
16-game pace:
68/1000/4
T1 still outpaced the first-half of 2019 in terms of REC& #39;s & yardage, even while playing mostly with a vet in the first-half & a rookie in the second.
Barring health, 1,000 yards could legit be close to his 2020 floor.
Last 8:
34/500/2
16-game pace:
68/1000/4
T1 still outpaced the first-half of 2019 in terms of REC& #39;s & yardage, even while playing mostly with a vet in the first-half & a rookie in the second.
Barring health, 1,000 yards could legit be close to his 2020 floor.
M. Boykin (RD 3)
This really doesn& #39;t help sell Boykin as an up-and-comer.
Not one bit.
13/198/3 in & #39;19, but only 4/67/1 in the last 8.
48% of the snaps 3X through the first 8, but just 2X after:
48% in a 45-6 blowout @ LAR in WK 12.
& 50% in a meaningless Week 17.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimacing face" aria-label="Emoji: Grimacing face">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimacing face" aria-label="Emoji: Grimacing face">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😬" title="Grimacing face" aria-label="Emoji: Grimacing face">
This really doesn& #39;t help sell Boykin as an up-and-comer.
Not one bit.
13/198/3 in & #39;19, but only 4/67/1 in the last 8.
48% of the snaps 3X through the first 8, but just 2X after:
48% in a 45-6 blowout @ LAR in WK 12.
& 50% in a meaningless Week 17.
R. Ridley (RD 4)
Another tough sell.
Gameday inactive until Week 13.
2 positives:
Caught 6/7 targets & improved in all 3 games w/ 40% of the snaps:
WK 14: 1/5
WK 15: 2/10
WK 17: 3/54
It’s not much, but it’s something, I guess?
Take it & run with it Riley Ridley truthers!
Another tough sell.
Gameday inactive until Week 13.
2 positives:
Caught 6/7 targets & improved in all 3 games w/ 40% of the snaps:
WK 14: 1/5
WK 15: 2/10
WK 17: 3/54
It’s not much, but it’s something, I guess?
Take it & run with it Riley Ridley truthers!
Renfrow (RD 5)
Renfrow looks REALLY good here, even including 3 of his first 8 games in the sample.
Last 8:
37/504/4
16-game pace:
74/1008/8
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😮" title="Face with open mouth" aria-label="Emoji: Face with open mouth">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😮" title="Face with open mouth" aria-label="Emoji: Face with open mouth">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😮" title="Face with open mouth" aria-label="Emoji: Face with open mouth">
Ruggs & Bryan Edwards loom, but there& #39;s no denying Renfrow had a LEGIT breakout w/ Carr in the second-half of 2019.
Renfrow looks REALLY good here, even including 3 of his first 8 games in the sample.
Last 8:
37/504/4
16-game pace:
74/1008/8
Ruggs & Bryan Edwards loom, but there& #39;s no denying Renfrow had a LEGIT breakout w/ Carr in the second-half of 2019.
Darius Slayton (RD 5)
5th round rookie, didn’t see a target until WK 3.
Once the Giants started involving him in their plans, there was no stopping Big Play Slay.
From WK 9 on, he acted out like a 1,000-yard/10 TD WR would…
Last 8:
32/473/5
16-game pace:
64/946/10
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="😍" title="Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes" aria-label="Emoji: Smiling face with heart-shaped eyes">
5th round rookie, didn’t see a target until WK 3.
Once the Giants started involving him in their plans, there was no stopping Big Play Slay.
From WK 9 on, he acted out like a 1,000-yard/10 TD WR would…
Last 8:
32/473/5
16-game pace:
64/946/10
S. Sims (UDFA)
Sims is the one guy to sneak his way onto the list, so he gets 2 tweets.
The only UDFA Rookie WR to finish in the top-70 fantasy WR’s, Sims started as a special-teamer & didn’t see more than 10% of the snaps until WK 5.
...
(1/2)
Sims is the one guy to sneak his way onto the list, so he gets 2 tweets.
The only UDFA Rookie WR to finish in the top-70 fantasy WR’s, Sims started as a special-teamer & didn’t see more than 10% of the snaps until WK 5.
...
(1/2)
(2/2)
He was stuck behind Trey Quinn until WK 11, but took over the slot Week 12 & didn’t look back.
Topped 58% of the snaps every game after that.
Those last 6 games:
23/259/4
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16-game pace:
61/690/10
For reference... Cobb had 55/823/3 last year as Dallas’ slot WR.
He was stuck behind Trey Quinn until WK 11, but took over the slot Week 12 & didn’t look back.
Topped 58% of the snaps every game after that.
Those last 6 games:
23/259/4
16-game pace:
61/690/10
For reference... Cobb had 55/823/3 last year as Dallas’ slot WR.
Nothing to see here: JJAW, Jalen Hurd, Hakeem Butler, Gary Jennings, every WR taken after Round 5.
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Better luck with these guys in Year 2!
Better luck with these guys in Year 2!
