Disregarding the first 1/2 of 2019 as a "settling period" & extrapolating just the last 8 games of the 2019 WR class to get an idea of a ~Year 2 floor:

[A THREAD]

(For this information to be relevant, we have to assume most WR's can duplicate their end-of-Year-1 pace in Year 2)
Hollywood (RD 1)

With Hollywood’s foot getting worse late in the year, this exercise doesn’t apply. Instead, look at games where he played < 45 snaps.

(6 Games)

WK2: 8/86
WK3: 2/49
WK4: 4/22
WK12: 5/42/2
WK15: 4/45/1
DIV: 7/126

Total: 30/370/3

16-game pace: 80/986/8

😍😍😍
N’Keal Harry (RD 1)

This exercise doesn’t work for Harry either…

He was hurt & his only 8 games were the last 8. His snap % was also too low for the #'s here to actually mean anything...

🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️🤦‍♂️

Not off to a good start, are we?

😆😆😆

Don't worry, it gets better from here.
Deebo Samuel (RD 2)

I’m going to expand Deebo’s sample size by including the 3 playoff games as well. There wasn't a drastic enough change in the playoffs to throw those games out.

Last 11 games:

45/702/2
15/224/2 Rushing

16-game pace:

65/1021/3
22/325/3 Rushing

😍😍😍
AJB (RD 2)

Not including playoffs.

29 attempts TOTAL first 2 RD's is too circumstantial.

Last 8:

30/703/5
2/62/1 Rushing

16-game pace:

60/1406/10
4/124/2

Make any case for regression you want , but do we really care if the REC's are modest when he can do things like that?
Mecole (RD 2)

Last 8:

6/164/2
2/16 Rushing
*1 KR TD

16-game pace:

12/328/4
4/32

😬😬😬

Mecole's role dried up w/ Reek back WK 6.

6 REC's/8 games is worrisome, at best, & makes his 2020 redraft (standalone) value look iffy.
Parris (RD 2)

Campbell was hurt before the season, never topped 45% of the snaps through the first 3 weeks & only played 4 more games after that.

So, look at the 3 games he played at least 49% of the snaps:

WK 4: 5/25/8 TGT (63%)
WK 9: 5/53/5 TGT (62%)
WK 12: 3/12/5 TGT (49%)
Isabella (RD 2)

It’s haaaarrrd to make any sort of case for Andy’s rookie year, but he did catch 7/181/1 in the last 8 after not recording his 1st REC until Week 7... a 14/362/2 pace.

I guess that makes him look a little teeny tiny bit better…

Maybe?

No?

Didn’t think so…
DK Metcalf (RD 2)

Including playoffs.

SEA's approach in those games seems 100% reproducible.

Last 10:

46/717/4

16-game pace:

73/1147/6

DK's TD pace actually decreased in the second-half of the year.

But from Week 9 on, he balled like a 75 REC/1,150 YD WR would…

😍😍😍
Diontae (RD 3)

Last 8:

33/381/2
2/33 Rushing

16-game pace:

66/762/4
4/66

DJ also saw his TD’s drop in the second-half, which probably isn’t typical for rookie WR’s.

He really had 5 TD's.

His 16-game pace should be considered his 2020 floor, at the absolute bare minimum.
Terry (RD 3)

Last 8:

34/500/2

16-game pace:

68/1000/4

T1 still outpaced the first-half of 2019 in terms of REC's & yardage, even while playing mostly with a vet in the first-half & a rookie in the second.

Barring health, 1,000 yards could legit be close to his 2020 floor.
M. Boykin (RD 3)

This really doesn't help sell Boykin as an up-and-comer.

Not one bit.

13/198/3 in '19, but only 4/67/1 in the last 8.

48% of the snaps 3X through the first 8, but just 2X after:

48% in a 45-6 blowout @ LAR in WK 12.

& 50% in a meaningless Week 17.

😬😬😬
R. Ridley (RD 4)

Another tough sell.

Gameday inactive until Week 13.

2 positives:

Caught 6/7 targets & improved in all 3 games w/ 40% of the snaps:

WK 14: 1/5
WK 15: 2/10
WK 17: 3/54

It’s not much, but it’s something, I guess?

Take it & run with it Riley Ridley truthers!
Renfrow (RD 5)

Renfrow looks REALLY good here, even including 3 of his first 8 games in the sample.

Last 8:

37/504/4

16-game pace:

74/1008/8

😮😮😮

Ruggs & Bryan Edwards loom, but there's no denying Renfrow had a LEGIT breakout w/ Carr in the second-half of 2019.
Darius Slayton (RD 5)

5th round rookie, didn’t see a target until WK 3.

Once the Giants started involving him in their plans, there was no stopping Big Play Slay.

From WK 9 on, he acted out like a 1,000-yard/10 TD WR would…

Last 8:

32/473/5

16-game pace:

64/946/10

😍😍😍
S. Sims (UDFA)

Sims is the one guy to sneak his way onto the list, so he gets 2 tweets.

The only UDFA Rookie WR to finish in the top-70 fantasy WR’s, Sims started as a special-teamer & didn’t see more than 10% of the snaps until WK 5.

...

(1/2)
(2/2)

He was stuck behind Trey Quinn until WK 11, but took over the slot Week 12 & didn’t look back.

Topped 58% of the snaps every game after that.

Those last 6 games:

23/259/4

😮😮😮

16-game pace:

61/690/10

For reference... Cobb had 55/823/3 last year as Dallas’ slot WR.
Nothing to see here: JJAW, Jalen Hurd, Hakeem Butler, Gary Jennings, every WR taken after Round 5.

😬😬😬

Better luck with these guys in Year 2!
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