Trump will not get over 50% in Utah. He did not last time and he won't this time.

But that does not mean Biden will win. He will still do better than Hillary but expect more people to vote third-party in Utah than in any other state. https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1265282764380811266

This does show a huge and important change to American politics that began with Trump and will likely continue long after he is gone: The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-Day Saints, which has been monolithically Republican for generations, is leaving the GOP in droves

This has HUGE implications nationally. Latter-Day Saints have always been ignored by Democrats and taken for granted by the GOP. As a result, the group has wielded ZERO power politically to shape the national conversation.

But, if this voting block is suddenly up for grabs...

...then they have the capacity to shape the national conversation. The GOP cannot afford to lose members Mormons. If they do, then they lose UT, AZ, NV and ID. That is the electoral equivalent of losing Florida. The GOP has no margin of error, they cannot lose those states

We are already seeing this bear out in Arizona where the state just elected, on the narrowest of margins, a Democrat as Senator likely due to LDS disaffection with Trump.

If Trump loses Arizona in 2020 it will be because he lost members of the Church

We are certainly already seeing this play out among prominent members of the Church in Congress. The only Republican to vote to impeach Trump- Mitt Romney.

Perhaps the most vocal never Trumper before him? Mormon Jeff Flake from Arizona.

The issue that matters here and the one that may end up splitting the GOP is immigration. Mormons, generally speaking, are very VERY pro-immigration. Yes, they want laws followed, but they also want people treated with kindness, decency and compassion.

If the Republican party continues down it's anti-immigrant path, it will lose members of the Church, and without them, it will lose power for a generation.

Without realizing it, the GOP is losing leverage and in 2020, Mormons hold all the cards.