Short thread on something I think has obviously shifted since December.

If Labour is going to win the next election, it is probably going to be more because of competency, and not by appealing to socially conservative voters with socially conservative policies.

Firstly, this is not an argument for why Labour doesn’t need to care about the latter. There are certain areas (welfare, immigration, crime) where they have been way out of touch with the average voter in recent years.

Also, the two are not wholly unrelated (people think your more competent if you say things they agree with), and on many occasions, you can do both at the same time.

But, in the analysis after December, too much of the focus was on Brexit and the different political beliefs of the voter's Labour lost (both important) with way too little on the fact that just 14% of the public saw the party as competent, 63% incompetent.

The main purpose of this thread was to make @drjennings and @ProfJaneGreen happy.

Their book is fantastic:

https://www.amazon.co.uk/Politics-Competence-Parties-Public-Opinion/dp/110715801X