Thread: Predicting #COVID deaths in the US from 8k to 100k.

I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.

Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?

My first prediction on Apr 4 (toll @ 8k) was for the Easter Sunday (20k):

In my Apr 12 thread (toll @ 20k), I explained the fundamental systems concepts for the #coronavirus epidemic:

I made my second prediction on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (40k). In the Apr 19 thread below, I explained my theory for the Kinematics of Epidemics:

I made my third prediction on Apr 21 for May 1 (65k= MAX death toll REPEATEDLY predicted by Mr Trump). I discussed that in the May 1 thread below:

( @ft did not publish a cumulative deaths plot on May 1. Below is the daily new cases plot from Apr 28.)

My fourth prediction was on May 10 for the Memorial Weekend: 100k +/– 5k deaths.

May 23 tally was 97k. May 25 tally was 99,459.

The current official tally, May 26, 5pm ET, is 100,038 ( @bing).

Note that reporting of deaths are delayed on weekends.

Mr. Trump's UPDATED prediction on May 1 for the MAXIMUM US death toll from #COVID was 100,000.

I made a rough projection on May 1 that we would reach ~100k deaths before the end of May:

I did not use any complex dynamic models or advanced statistical methods such as #MachineLearning or #AI. I did not even use a calculator. All I used was just a pen and paper.

A proof that the basic dynamics of the #coronavirus spread is fairly simple & predictable.

We have had about 10 weeks of lockdowns in the US. These lockdowns slowed the exponential growth of cases to a linear trend. However, the deceleration rate of daily new cases is much slower than other countries that locked down around the same time.

Daily new cases:

#Switzerland has the steepest negative slope, i.e., very successful deceleration.

#Italy, #Spain, #France, #Germany, #Netherlands have similar deceleration rates. But NL has unfortunately plateaued.

The UK is the worst in #Europe, yet better than the #US.

Daily deaths:

#Austria, #Switzerland, the #Netherlands, #Belgium, #Germany, #France, #Spain are decelerating very rapidly. (FR & SP curves are right under Italy.)

#UK & #Italy are decelerating similarly.

#US: the slowest deceleration of daily deaths.

Breakdown of the daily cases in the US States:

Except for #NewYork, we cannot see sharp deceleration in daily cases.

#NewJersey & #Massachusetts are decelerating slowly.

Other states have mostly plateaued, i.e., an almost constant number of daily new cases.

Similar observations apply for daily deaths in the US States.

#NewYork has a significant deceleration.

#NewJersey, #Massachusetts, #Michigan have had a slow deceleration.

Most states have plateaued.

Why have we failed to decelerate like EU countries, #SouthKorea, #Japan, #Australia, #NewZealand, #Iceland, etc?

1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).

2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.

Also, reopening CANNOT mean going back to "business as usual".

Crowded events, in closed or open spaces, will inevitably lead to further spread of the virus.

Example: a Memorial Weekend pool party near the Lake of the Ozarks.

And indoor spaces — gyms, churches, bars, clubs, restaurants, schools — cannot reopen until we EITHER "crush the curve" OR find a vaccine.

So, I'm not sure why the people going to this gym in #NewJersey are so excited?!

Finally, we must understand a simple fact: the #coronavirus does not care about our politics or ideology.

To put the current #COVID death toll of over 100k in context, here are the casualties for the major wars/events in the US:

US Civil War: 620k
WW II: 418k

Vietnam: 58.2k
WW I (combat): 53.4k
Korea: 33.7k
Iraq: 4.42k
9/11: 2.97k
Pearl Harbor: 2.4k
Afghanistan: 2.37k

To defeat the #coronavirus, we need clear, long-term thinking informed by SCIENCE and RELIABLE DATA.

We cannot have a healthy economy without healthy people.

We have to put the interests of the public before our self interests.

A final note: it is well known that #COVID deaths are undercounted in many countries, including the US & UK.

@ft, @NYTimes, etc have widely reported this problem.

Special thank you to @ft @jburnmurdoch for providing the excellent plots that I have used in this thread.

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