Thread: Predicting #COVID deaths in the US from 8k to 100k.

I started predicting the US COVID death toll ~2 months ago. All of my predictions to date have proven accurate. The most painful predictions I have ever made.

Why have we failed to stop the #coronavirus in the US?

1/
My first prediction on Apr 4 (toll @ 8k) was for the Easter Sunday (20k):

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1246561223119945729?s=20

2/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
In my Apr 12 thread (toll @ 20k), I explained the fundamental systems concepts for the #coronavirus epidemic:

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1249391715951300609?s=20

3/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
I made my second prediction on Apr 12 for Apr 19 (40k). In the Apr 19 thread below, I explained my theory for the Kinematics of Epidemics:

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1251818600668844033?s=20

4/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
I made my third prediction on Apr 21 for May 1 (65k= MAX death toll REPEATEDLY predicted by Mr Trump). I discussed that in the May 1 thread below:

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1256413576195162112?s=20

(https://twitter.com/SafaMote/... href="https://twitter.com/FT">@ft did not publish a cumulative deaths plot on May 1. Below is the daily new cases plot from Apr 28.)

5/
My fourth prediction was on May 10 for the Memorial Weekend: 100k +/– 5k deaths.

May 23 tally was 97k. May 25 tally was 99,459.

The current official tally, May 26, 5pm ET, is 100,038 ( @bing).

Note that reporting of deaths are delayed on weekends.

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1259677068108972033?s=20

6/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
Mr. Trump& #39;s UPDATED prediction on May 1 for the MAXIMUM US death toll from #COVID was 100,000.

I made a rough projection on May 1 that we would reach ~100k deaths before the end of May:

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1256363078616317952?s=20



7/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
I did not use any complex dynamic models or advanced statistical methods such as #MachineLearning or #AI. I did not even use a calculator. All I used was just a pen and paper.

A proof that the basic dynamics of the #coronavirus spread is fairly simple & predictable.

8/
We have had about 10 weeks of lockdowns in the US. These lockdowns slowed the exponential growth of cases to a linear trend. However, the deceleration rate of daily new cases is much slower than other countries that locked down around the same time.

https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1256413606821888000?s=20

9/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
Daily new cases:

#Switzerland has the steepest negative slope, i.e., very successful deceleration.

#Italy, #Spain, #France, #Germany, #Netherlands have similar deceleration rates. But NL has unfortunately plateaued.

The UK is the worst in #Europe, yet better than the #US.

10/
Daily deaths:

#Austria, #Switzerland, the #Netherlands, #Belgium, #Germany, #France, #Spain are decelerating very rapidly. (FR & SP curves are right under Italy.)

#UK & #Italy are decelerating similarly.

#US: the slowest deceleration of daily deaths.

11/
Breakdown of the daily cases in the US States:

Except for #NewYork, we cannot see sharp deceleration in daily cases.

#NewJersey & #Massachusetts are decelerating slowly.

Other states have mostly plateaued, i.e., an almost constant number of daily new cases.

12/
Similar observations apply for daily deaths in the US States.

#NewYork has a significant deceleration.

#NewJersey, #Massachusetts, #Michigan have had a slow deceleration.

Most states have plateaued.

13/
Why have we failed to decelerate like EU countries, #SouthKorea, #Japan, #Australia, #NewZealand, #Iceland, etc?

1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).

2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.

14/
Why have we failed to decelerate like EU countries, #SouthKorea, #Japan, #Australia, #NewZealand, #Iceland, etc?1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.14/
Why have we failed to decelerate like EU countries, #SouthKorea, #Japan, #Australia, #NewZealand, #Iceland, etc?1) People are not uniformly observing lockdowns (e.g., gatherings, close contacts).2) We are not wearing masks PROPERLY & AT ALL TIMES while in closed spaces.14/
Also, reopening CANNOT mean going back to "business as usual".

Crowded events, in closed or open spaces, will inevitably lead to further spread of the virus.

Example: a Memorial Weekend pool party near the Lake of the Ozarks.



15/
And indoor spaces — gyms, churches, bars, clubs, restaurants, schools — cannot reopen until we EITHER "crush the curve" OR find a vaccine.

So, I& #39;m not sure why the people going to this gym in #NewJersey are so excited?!



https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1262425853054652428?s=20

16/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
Finally, we must understand a simple fact: the #coronavirus does not care about our politics or ideology.



https://twitter.com/SafaMote/status/1256420280681091072?s=20

17/">https://twitter.com/SafaMote/...
To put the current #COVID death toll of over 100k in context, here are the casualties for the major wars/events in the US:

US Civil War: 620k
WW II: 418k

Vietnam: 58.2k
WW I (combat): 53.4k
Korea: 33.7k
Iraq: 4.42k
9/11: 2.97k
Pearl Harbor: 2.4k
Afghanistan: 2.37k

18/
To defeat the #coronavirus, we need clear, long-term thinking informed by SCIENCE and RELIABLE DATA.

We cannot have a healthy economy without healthy people.

We have to put the interests of the public before our self interests.

19/
A final note: it is well known that #COVID deaths are undercounted in many countries, including the US & UK.

@ft, @NYTimes, etc have widely reported this problem.

Special thank you to @ft @jburnmurdoch for providing the excellent plots that I have used in this thread.

20/
/end
You can follow @SafaMote.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled:
There are a lot of misconceptions about the Turkish diaspora in Germany. Since i just finished writing an essay about this topic I thought it's time to give other people
Read more
Las mejores calculadoras online en 2020A thread http://totumat.com/2020/11/26/las-mejores-calculadoras-online-en-2020/ Cuando se estudian asignaturas que requieren de cálculos complicados, nada mejor que contar con una buena calculadora.
Read more
Mitigating #ClimateChange is as much about taking up new techs as about leaving others behindMost studies focus on #coal's global downfall but another #energy tech decline is loomingRead my new
Read more