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Thread : Covid-19 Research as of 05-6-2020
What does the Data say?
Has the Fear been Warranted?
Here is what Swiss Policy Research has found thus far.
(I simply be putting key points of their research into a twitter thread, This is not my work) https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
What does the Data say?
Has the Fear been Warranted?
Here is what Swiss Policy Research has found thus far.
(I simply be putting key points of their research into a twitter thread, This is not my work) https://swprs.org/a-swiss-doctor-on-covid-19/
1) According to data from the best-studied countries and regions, the lethality of Covid19 is on average about 0.2%, which is in the range of a severe influenza (flu) and about twenty times lower than originally assumed by the WHO. https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-death-rate-by-age-countries-2020-3
2) Even in the global “hotspots”, the risk of death for the general population of school and working age is typically in the range of a daily car ride to work. The risk was initially overestimated because many people with only mild or no symptoms were not taken into account.
3) Up to 80% of all test-positive persons remain symptom-free. Even among 70-79 year olds, about 60% remain symptom-free. Over 97% of all persons develop mild symptoms at most. https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1375
4) Up to 60% of all persons may already have a certain cellular background immunity to Covid19 due to contact with previous coronaviruses (i.e. common cold viruses). https://www.cell.com/cell/fulltext/S0092-8674(20)30610-3
5) The median or average age of the deceased in most countries (including Italy) is over 80 years and only about 1% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of deaths thus essentially corresponds to normal mortality. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-18/99-of-those-who-died-from-virus-had-other-illness-italy-says
6) In many countries, up to two thirds of all extra deaths occurred in nursing homes, which do not benefit from a general lockdown. Moreover, in many cases it is not clear whether these people really died from Covid19 or from extreme stress, fear and loneliness.
7) Up to 50% of all additional deaths may have been caused not by Covid19, but by the effects of the lockdown, panic and fear. For example, the treatment of heart attacks and strokes decreased by up to 60% because many patients no longer dared to go to hospital.
8) Even in so-called “Covid19 deaths” it is often not clear whether they died from or with coronavirus (i.e. from underlying diseases) or if they were counted as “presumed cases” and not tested at all. However, official figures usually do not reflect this distinction.
9.1) Many media reports of young and healthy people dying from Covid19 turned out to be false: many of these young people either did not die from Covid19, they had already been seriously ill (e.g. from undiagnosed leukaemia), or they were in fact 109 instead of 9 years old.
9.2) ... The claimed increase in Kawasaki disease in children also turned out to be false. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8193487/Coroner-refuses-rule-COVID-19-cause-death-six-week-old-Connecticut-baby.html
10.1) The normal overall mortality per day is about 8000 people in the US, about 2600 in Germany and about 1800 in Italy. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/68/wr/mm6826a5.htm
10.2) Influenza mortality per season is up to 80,000 in the US and up to 25,000 in Germany and Italy. In several countries Covid19 deaths remained below strong flu seasons. https://www.euromomo.eu/graphs-and-maps
11) The often shown exponential curves of “corona cases” are misleading, as the number of tests also increased exponentially. The positive rate remained constant at 5% to 25% ... In many countries, the peak of the spread was already reached well before the lockdown.
12) Countries without curfews and contact bans, such as Japan, South Korea or Sweden, have not experienced a more negative course of events than other countries. Sweden was even praised by the WHO and now benefits from higher immunity compared to lockdown countries.
13) The fear of a shortage of ventilators was unjustified. According to lung specialists, the invasive ventilation (intubation) of Covid19 patients, which is partly done out of fear of spreading the virus, is in fact often counterproductive and damaging to the lungs.
14) Contrary to original assumptions, various studies have shown that there is no evidence of the virus spreading through aerosols (i.e. tiny particles floating in the air) or through smear infections (e.g. on door handles or smartphones). https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/modes-of-transmission-of-virus-causing-covid-19-implications-for-ipc-precaution-recommendations
15) The main modes of transmission are direct contact and droplets produced when coughing or sneezing. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/02/no-proof-coronavirus-can-spread-shopping-says-leading-german/
16) There is also no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in healthy or asymptomatic individuals. On the contrary, experts warn that such masks interfere with normal breathing and may become “germ carriers”. Leading Dr.s called masks “media hype”, “ridiculous”
17) Many clinics in Europe and the US remained strongly underutilized or almost empty during the Covid19 peak and in some cases had to send staff home. Numerous operations and therapies were cancelled, including some organ transplants and cancer screenings.
18) Several media were caught trying to dramatize the situation in hospitals, sometimes even with manipulative images and videos. In general, the unprofessional reporting of many media maximized fear and panic in the population. https://nypost.com/2020/04/01/cbs-admits-to-using-footage-from-italy-in-report-about-nyc/
19) The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors and can produce false positive and false negative results. Moreover, the official virus test was not clinically validated due to time pressure and may sometimes react positive to other coronaviruses.
20.1) Numerous internationally renowned experts in the fields of virology, immunology and epidemiology consider the measures taken to be counterproductive and recommend rapid natural immunisation of the general population and protection of risk groups.
20.2) The risks for children are virtually zero and closing schools was never medically warranted. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanchi/article/PIIS2352-4642(20)30095-X/fulltext
21) Several medical experts described vaccines against coronaviruses as unnecessary or even dangerous. Indeed, the vaccine against the so-called swine flu of 2009, for example, led to sometimes severe neurological damage and lawsuits in the millions.
22) The virus test kits used internationally are prone to errors and can produce false positive and false negative results. Moreover, the official virus test was not clinically validated due to time pressure and may sometimes react positive to other coronaviruses.
23) The number of people suffering from unemployment, psychological problems and domestic violence as a result of the measures has skyrocketed worldwide. Several experts believe that the measures may claim more lives than the virus itself. https://www.indystar.com/story/news/health/2020/04/03/coronavirus-indiana-how-get-help-mental-health-addiction/5104357002/
24) NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the “corona crisis” will be used for the massive and permanent expansion of global surveillance. The renowned virologist Pablo Goldschmidt spoke of a “global media terror” and “totalitarian measures”.
25) More than 500 scientists have warned against an “unprecedented surveillance of society” through problematic apps for “contact tracing”. In some countries, such “contact tracing” is already carried out directly by the secret service.
https://www.esat.kuleuven.be/cosic/sites/contact-tracing-joint-statement/
https://www.esat.kuleuven.be/cosic/sites/contact-tracing-joint-statement/
26) A 2019 WHO study on public health measures against pandemic influenza found that from a medical perspective, “contact tracing” is “not recommended in any circumstances”.
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf#page=9
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/329438/9789241516839-eng.pdf#page=9
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