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Since more than half my tweets these days are about the utter insanity of college's reopening for f2f instruction, I thought I'd put together a thread that collects my thoughts--as an educator, not an epidemiologist--on why nothing I've read convinces me this is safe /1
In all honesty, I'm surprised at this trend. Based on everything we knew about how contagious this disease was, and the extent of the lockdown measures, my assumption was that in person college instruction would be the LAST thing to come back /2
These "roadmaps" for reopening use lots of buzzwords that might trick you into thinking this is safe: physical distancing, reducing capacity, frequent testing, wearing masks, increased sanitation. We hear them all the time as "best practices". But colleges are different. Why? /3
First, most colleges draw students from across the country. In truth, there is no single US epidemic, but mini regional epidemics. College reopening will jumble these together and bring students from areas with more severe epidemics into places that are trending down /4
In addition to this, many students will have to take planes to reach their schools, increasing the risk that they will become infected en route. In August, there will be no place more dangerous in America than college campuses and the often small towns that house them /5
Second, let's talk distancing. Obviously, crammed lecture halls and seminar rooms are a bad idea. So colleges are saying that they will lengthen the day to allow for more sections of courses taught to smaller groups (and also more time b/w classes). Sounds good, right? /6
If you have ever been in a college classroom of any size, you'll know that students are routinely 1-2 feet apart from each other, though this varies. Capacity for most rooms will have to be reduced by 50-75% in most cases to ensure everyone is 6 ft apart. /7
Our classrooms are often full to capacity. Even if we shift all classes 60 and above online, would we be able to accommodate all those extra sections in a few extra time blocks? /8
And the bigger question--does distancing even matter for indoor classes? /9
After seeing the spread in restaurants and churches and choir practices, we know the significance of viral load--it builds up over time in enclosed spaces, meaning people across the room from an infected individual can become infected themselves. /10
In classes that meet for 1 or 2 hours at a time, with lots of talking, there will be a lot of viral load buildup. But that's why we have masks, you say! /11
I haven't seen any study on indoor mask use in a classroom setting, but since masks seem simply to reduce transmissibility, it seems unclear that they would prevent viral load buildup over a period of hours. And then there's this problem: will we actually wear them? /12
It is incredibly hard to carry on a conversation with someone with a mask on. Students will be straining to hear one another, and I can imagine many simply taking theirs off to be better heard. /13
If students, out of discomfort or to be better heard, remove their masks, what authority will instructors have to require them to put them back on? Can we just stop holding classes if we feel unsafe? Seems like a battleground. And, about instructors wearing masks... /14
Obviously, we probably can't, since we often do the most talking and need to be heard in large spaces. Plexiglass seems like an appealing solution until you remember the viral load problem...it won't fix that. /15
Third, let's talk distancing outside of classes, which is where students spend most of their time. We will be relying on young people excited to be at college to self-regulate for literally months on end. This is simply unfair to ask them /16
This means all kinds of things: make sure in hallways you are always apart from others, even when it is crowded, you are lost, late, in a rush. Keep your friend circle to a minimum. Don't go to parties. Wear your mask even when it's hot, humid and uncomfortable /17
Even if most students miraculously comply, the few who don't will still put *everyone* else at risk.
So, that's why we have testing, right? /18
So, that's why we have testing, right? /18
Well, OK. Let's talk about testing. How frequently are we going to test a sample? Once a week? Once a month? How do we know what sample is representative? How do we account for off-campus employees bringing the disease onto campus between testing cycles /19
This can be done, but it is costly, requires manpower, and has a huge margin for error. You get your sample wrong, or wait too long between testing, and you could miss a serious outbreak /20
But let's say testing and contact tracing works. Great! We have a new problem: students have literally HUNDREDS of contacts every day. Every class a positive student is in will have to shut down and move online as all those hundreds of people will go into quarantine /21
That quarantined instructor may be teaching 3-4 courses, all of which will have to suddenly move online for 2 weeks or longer. Many classes will have to ramp up their online component as more and more students get quarantined /22
Remind me again why this would be preferable to a course that is continuous and uninterrupted in an online venue? /23
Maybe most schools do a decent job of managing outbreaks and keeping instruction reasonably uninterrupted. What about those--5%/15%/25%?--that don't and suffer catastrophic outbreaks, leading to many hospitalizations and more than a few deaths? /24
Parents and students: maybe you think you want in person instruction. We all want to go back to normal. But I promise you that you will not want what you find. Stay home, be safe. Online instruction will give you a much better year.
