So as I reflect on the past few months am left wondering if in reality, it could have played out significantly different

Thoughts on COVID

1/

My first observation is that pandemic was a recognised risk, indeed in the national risk register, it was the most likely with highest impact of all the non conflict related risks. But was that recognised in plans and more importantly, resources?

/2

Possibly too early to say, but I think the mechanisms and structure of national risk management need to ask of themselves some questions, especially on the linkage between risk articulation and mitigation funding/activity

/3

Which is a convoluted way of saying I think we could have been better prepared

/4

The next question for me is, if we were better prepared, would outcomes have been significantly different. Would higher stock levels of PPE for healthcare workers, for example, have resulted in lower healthcare setting transmission, I honestly don't know

/5

But I don't think it is an unreasonable proposition, at least to investigate.

/6

Decision making and dissemination of those decisions, command and control, was always going to be a massive challenge when the UK has devolved government and a fairly complex patchwork of organisations and stakeholders

/7

Is there room to simplify, maybe, we have evolved to where we are generally for very good reasons, complex organisations, where the UK is that organisation, are never quick to react and always make errors, mostly because we are all human, and have human frailties

/8

With the passage of time, all those graphs we have got used to arguing over will be subject to calmer scrutiny, stats will be analysed, counting and definitions normalised, factors such as travel, age and population health will be factored in

/9

I get the impression when that is done, the difference between different nations (at least comparable nations) will not be as marked as the headlines will have us believe

/10

As a nation, I think we have faced this challenge superbly. Away from Twitter, people have adapted, got on with it with mostly good cheer and acted with commons sense. Public and private sector alike have dug deep

/11

Of course there have been the idiots, but these are a minority that have been magnified by social media and the press in an environment where there is bugger all else happening

/12

Has the government made mistakes, of course they have, aplenty, as has every other government, see the point about human frailties and complex organisations above. Would Labour have made the same mistakes, obviously they would, to think otherwise is pure idiocy

/13

Many in the press have beclowned themselves, revealing partisan and puerile motives whilst seeing themselves as the sole arbiters of truth and holding power to account, arrogance damaging their reputation, if it was at all possible to damage further

/14

One of the fundamental assumptions was that lockdown would only hold so far, the last couple of weeks has seen this fatigue manifest itself as more and more start the process of getting out and about, seems this was a good assumption

/15

Another loser in this has been large tech, heavy handed censorship will lead to greater fragmentation and more diversity in platforms

/16

The armed forces have had contributed greatly, although I do think there has been an element of thrusting themselves into the response for optics and post covid defence review pie slicing reasons, I would advise against this

/17

We need to do better at civil resilience, but the armed forces should not be a significant part of this

/18

So to summarise, I look across the last few months with mixed emotions, we have seen the best of people and the worst of people, I predicted some things will change, some things won't, I stand by that

/19

For my part, I have actually been involved in some aspects of the response and seen some brilliant work in an area that doesn't get any headlines, I know there are many many more areas like this

/20

It has been an interesting, sad, encouraging, dull and exciting time, I hope that as a nation we can put aside our bitterness about politics, Brexit and avocado for breakfast, and realise that despite everything, there is more good out there than bad

Onwards

/END