Very forceful message from @USAfricaCommand (and, ergo USG) on #Russia's deployment of MiG-29 aircraft to #Libya to support #Haftar. Let's look at this from a couple of perspectives... https://twitter.com/USAfricaCommand/status/1265240771269197830
Firstly, it's a pretty flagrant breach of agreed #international #sanctions and norms. While we've seen #Iran's missiles and rockets popping out of #Yemen with a (bad) degree of plausible deniability and talk of #Iran being a bad actor in the region, this is an extremely overt act
There's a sanctions committee established by the United Nations Security council to govern and manage any arms transfers into #Libya - it's challenging work, and #OSINT folk have been good at uncovering kit used by all sides in the conflict.
Check out the Sanctions Committee website here for more information on their work, well worth looking at, in addition to their annual reports etc: https://www.un.org/securitycouncil/sanctions/1970
Second perspective - this adds in an element to #PMC activity that we haven't really seen since #Sandline in #SierraLeone and #Bougainville in the late '90s/early 2000s (ping @peterwsinger) where a #PMC has to bring in heavy kit to achieve its aims.
Clearly, Wagner has found that basic mobile infantry tactics aren't winning the war, despite boosting up the inventories with all kinds of other heavier equipment and specialised personnel that the land domain can bring to the fight.
And that failure has led to the uncomfortable position where they've had to ask for external assistance from their home country, reducing the plausible deniability and veils of secrecy to an open geopolitical challenge. More awkward in #Moscow than people might think.
So much like #Sandline and #ExecutiveOutcomes, a decisive #AirPower campaign will help them to achieve their objectives. They hope. Unfortunately, unlike #SierraLeone, they find themselves in a rather sticky geopolitical situation.
Ultimately, their actions aren't taking place in a legally permissive environment. While there were problems with #Sandline and #ExecutiveOutcomes *legally*, their main point was to operate on behalf of recognised governments (although #Angola was a bit iffy).
Final point, and linking these together, we've almost come full circle from the #PMC models of the post 2003 world, and back to that of the 90s. Highly capable folk contracted with heavy equipment winning battles and maybe a war.
Just comes down to if you agree with the victor's politics or not. :-/
Still, a big change from convoy protection and making sure the baked beans make it down #RouteIrish. Will this lead to changes in the global legal order on mercenaries and their employment?
Probably not. Post-2003 showed there was more convenience in having loose regs on that one. #SouthAfrica had some strict regs on mercenaries and PMCs, but ultimately it's the smut debate: "I know what it is when I see it". END
You can follow @securitysplat.
Tip: mention @twtextapp on a Twitter thread with the keyword “unroll” to get a link to it.

Latest Threads Unrolled: