Update: Following hospital figures today, a cautious estimate of the number of excess UK deaths linked to the coronavirus pandemic up to 26 May is

63,800

Of these 59,359 have happened between mid March and Mid May, the rest are estimates

1/

It is now clear that the government& #39;s daily totals are now much closer to the numbers my model provides.
Between 11 May and 24 May, the DHSC total rose 4,222
Over the same period, my model also estimates 4,339

This reflects better government reporting

2/

Let& #39;s hope there is no second wave of the virus.

The big remaining data uncertainty is the relationship between people who have died after testing positive for coronavirus and total excess deaths.

The lower bound is the 59,359 excess death registrations since 20 March

ENDS

Sorry, quick addition for complete transparency.

There was a small downward revision (just over 500) after today& #39;s excess deaths data.

This reflected a change in the relationship between hospital deaths and excess deaths in the week ending May 15, which I have carried forward.