(Annual ADP Review Thread)

I use May ADP from @DLF as I think it usually offers a really good off-season insight as it’s post draft and post free agency but before the training camp hype has taken hold. It also settles through May and June showing a good snapshot of value.

Big Risers
The majority of the big risers are fairly obvious and had huge breakout season last year or were rookies who performed well year 1:
Lamar up 115 spots
Mark Andrews up 103 spots
Ekeler up 100 spots
Dak up 72 spots
Singletary up 59 spots

Tyreek up 57 spots (unique situation)
Kyler up 55 spots
AJ Brown up 47 spots
Deebo up 39 spots
Gallup up 37 spots
Drake up 37 spots
Godwin up 37 spots
Sanders up 33 spots

For me there isn’t a huge amount to learn from this list. Except that rookies and young players who perform well dramatically rise in value. Not exactly rocket science (that is unless you can predict the next back up RB finishing as the RB4).

Players that were in the 2018 top 150 that fell out of the 2019 top 200
So there were quite a few examples where players who were in the top 150 in 2018 fell out of the top 200 completely in 2019. Some were fairly unique circumstances:
Antonio Brown
Andrew Luck
Cam Newton
Jameis

Some were a combination of Age and/or Injury:
Devonta Freeman
Lamar Miller
Jerick Mckinnon
Devin Funchess
Trey Burton
D’Onta Foreman

But to me the interesting guys to fall off are the ones who fell off for different reasons:
Dante Pettis
Eric Ebron
Hakeem Butler
Royce Freeman
Andy Isabella
Keke Coutee
Tre’Quan Smith
Harmon
Geronimo Allison
Jaylen Samuels
DaeSean Hamilton
Ito Smith
MVS
Ballage
Vance McDonald

Now the overwhelming majority of that list (9 out of the 15) were young receivers that were being projected to perform in a great situation or were rookies with an immediate projected opportunity.

Big Fallers:
These are the guys that have dropped at least 60 spots from their 2019 ADP compared to their 2020 ADP:
Njoku
JJAW
Damien Williams
OJ Howard
Corey Davis
Alshon
Edelman
Kerryon
Watkins
Rashaad Penny
David Johnson
Latavius Murray
Nyheim Hines
Conner
Mack
Washington

Chris Herndon
Phillip Lindsay
Damien Harris
Dede Westbrook
Sony Michel
AJ Green
Baker Mayfield
Justice Hill
TY Hilton
In my opinion the guys in this list fall into 3 categories. Those facing new competition. Those who were injured last year. Those who didn’t perform as hoped.

Njoku, Damien Williams, Kerryon, James Washington, Justice, Mack and Lindsay all fell based on a new body being added and the competition they will see for touches. You can make individual arguments about how each may not fall but it’s tough to argue with the fall in a nutshell.

Alshon, Rashaad Penny, David Johnson, James Conner, AJ Green and TY Hilton all fell for a combination of being injured last year and their advancing years. Again you can make individual arguments for each but its tough to argue against the fall in ADP overall.

The third group has some interesting characters: JJAW, OJ Howard, Corey Davis, Washington, Damien Harris, Dede Westbrook, Baker Mayfield, Latavius Murray and Sony Michel.

With these guys they’ve not seen a huge uptick in competition for touches they didn’t spend the entire year injured and none of them are getting close to the cliff from an age perspective. They’ve all fallen because they didn’t perform last year as we had hoped.

But the opportunity hasn’t greatly changed meaning their coaching staffs are probably relying on them in a similar capacity to this time last year. So I think a lot of these guys falling in value offers a fantastic “buy” window.

Conclusion:
A lot can be learnt from looking back at previous year’s annual risers/fallers in ADP and there are always going to be strange exceptions Antonio Brown, Andrew Luck, tyreek Hill, Lamar Jackson. But it also throws up a few cautionary notes:

Young receivers that we’re projecting into new targets/roles offer the potential for huge upticks in ADP (godwin, deebo, AJB, Gallup) but also offer huge risk (pettis, Butler, Isabella, Coutee, Tre’Quan etc.)

It is certainly something to think about when we are projecting great opportunity this year for players in that same ADP range (70-120): the likes of Pittman, Mims, Aiyuk, Shenault, Hardman, Diontae, Slayton, Bryan Edwards, Preston Williams and Claypool

It also offers a fantastic insight into some players that have lost value in the last year that could be ripe for a bounce back to previous values: JJAW, OJ Howard, Corey Davis, Damien Harris, Baker Mayfield and many more.

Let me know if you have any thoughts or if you think I've missed anything. #DynastyFootball #Dynasty #ADPreview @SWallace_FF @FFMiz1 @dynasty_goat @goldjacketqbs @ThePointAfterFF

Tomorrow I'm going to talk about the guys at the top of the list that have moved. And how their values are 1 year on.