2/

Ho et al. (pre-print) studied 428,225 subjects in the @UK_Biobank of which 340 had confirmed #COVID.

BMI had a risk ratio (RR) of 1.24 (per 1SD). Obesity itself had a RR of 2.29.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.28.20083295v1
3/

To put this in context: for every 4.5 point increase in BMI, the risk of hospitalization from #COVID increases by almost 25%!
4/

Docherty et al. studied 20,133 COVID-19 patients across 208 UK hospitals in @bmj_latest.

Other than age, the top 3 risk factors for mortality were:

🔹Liver disease: hazard ratio (HR)=1.51
🔹Dementia: HR=1.40
🔹Obesity: HR=1.33

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1985
5/

To put this in context: obesity raises the risk of death from #COVID by 33%!
6/

These are harrowing statistics! The economic impact is also substantial. 👇

@ICNARC tracks ICUs across the @NHSuk.

As of May 22, 39% of the 9,026 #COVID patients in the ICU have obesity. The average length of stay (LOS) in the ICU is 8-10 days.

https://www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
7/

The daily cost of an ICU bed in the NHS is £1,932. At an average LOS of 9 days, #COVID has already cost the @NHSuk £170 million.

(this is just a small piece of the pie, as it is only related to ICU care and not other costs)

How would reducing obesity impact this? 👇
9/

⬇️BMI by ~5 points would likely reduce the requirement for ICU-level care by half.

This would lead to ICU savings of £30 million or £8,500 per ICU patient with obesity.

(this is a small piece of the pie, as it does not include all the cost savings across @NHSuk of ⬇️BMI)
10/

So is it feasible to declare—and fund—a “war on fat”?

Yes, absolutely.

The immediate potential cost savings and health benefits are substantial.

The long-term benefits could change the public health of an entire nation.
11/

However, we have waged “wars on fat” and “battles of the bulge” in the past and have failed.

What makes this time different?
12/

First, #COVID has forced us to confront #obesity with the urgency of an acute disease rather than the complacency of a chronic condition.
13/

Second, at the highest levels of government and in board rooms across the world, #obesity is on the agenda for key stakeholders who can coordinate a wide-scale response.
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Third, innovation in the health and wellness space in the past decade has led to the development of technology that can support a population-wide weight loss initiative.
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Finally, and most importantly, consumers are more aware of the benefits of living life at a healthier BMI.

What we need now is a coordinated effort from patients, providers, scientists, legislators, entrepreneurs, and advocates to tackle obesity head-on.

The time is now!
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