This is a very interesting interview (h/t @splalwani ) where BJP general secretary Ram Madhav says, “The situation is almost normal at this juncture” on the Sino-Indian boundary. This puts analysts and scholars in a bit of a bind. 1/n https://twitter.com/rahulkanwal/status/1264845683535708160

I think the available evidence, credible Indian reporters and satellite imagery, suggests things aren't almost normal. There is a debate about how abnormal they are. But there is reason to suspect that Ram Madhav is lying, trying to downplay the situation. 2/n

Analysts and scholars are normally in their professions because they care about the truth, and they think policy should be based on the truth. But there is also a consensus that public opinion pressures can complicate crisis de-escalation. 3/n

So the Indian government may be engaged in a "noble lie" to create latitude for de-escalation. How much should analysts and scholars pursue evidence that suggests they are lying and things are abnormal? How much should they publicize those inconvenient facts? 4/n

I don't think we should try to police one correct answer on this within the analytic community. It perhaps depends on whether you think this present situation is largely accidental (a crisis spiral), or a deliberate strategy that needs countering. But it is a quandary. n/n