I have written with @pdmsero on Sweden as the Covid counterfactual – "Live free and die". https://thecritic.co.uk/live-free-and-die-swedens-coronavirus-experience/

We describe what we know now about Covid – that it is extremely deadly – but acknowledge that Sweden's experience seems out of kilter with this, since Sweden's lockdown measures were far less strict than anywhere else's.

In Sweden we observe a country that might have the worst of both worlds, at least from a mortality perspective: an as-yet uncontrolled outbreak that nonetheless hasn't infected nearly enough people to achieve "herd immunity", thanks to voluntary social distancing.

That "voluntary distancing" is entirely understandable and may have some advantages over mandatory distancing, and at least avoids many of the the deaths you'd have expected. But Sweden's economy is just as rekt as its neighbours, and many more Swedes have died.