Crisis handling is not judged by outcomes.

If we take ONS/NRS/NISRA figures, COVID death/1M population:

England: 68
Scotland: 65

Which is of course also right, because government decisions are not the only variables determining public health outcomes.

1/ https://twitter.com/benatipsosmori/status/1265207125241999362

If they were, the Northern Ireland Executive should be the most admired administration in the UK:

COVID death/1M population:

England: 68
Scotland: 65
Wales: 62
Northern Ireland: 35

2/

But there are plenty of reasons why Northern Ireland did not face the same severity in the first wave as Britain. There are perhaps better judged against Ireland, which has a very similar per capita death rate as NI.

3/

So much will have to do with how reassured citizens feel. And the UK government did exactly as well as the rest of the UK in the early days. Same rally around the flag effect. But while that disappeared in the UK it did not in Scotland.

4/

And this is of course not about Cummings. The decline in UK government approval started much earlier. Some of the core accusations, e.g. about late shutdown, not shielding care homes, fall on to the Scottish government exactly as much as on the UK government.

5/

The one point at which a clear difference emerged was when UK government changed their advice, slogan from Stay at home to Stay alert, and all the prevaricating around the meaning of that. In truth, Scotland just stayed a week or two behind and said as much.

6/

But Scottish government didn't change messaging. And thus created less uncertainty.

But I don't think that can explain the by now massive difference in approval between Scottish and UK government.

7/

Sturgeon is doing about as well in these polls as Angela Merkel and Jacinda Ardern are doing. In both those cases, outcomes play a big role.

Sturgeon is a very communicator but not as much of a genius as to reward so much "excess approval".

8/

Maybe we need to look at approval as a context-dependent measure. Many US state governors are seeing high approval figures irrespective of outcomes. Much is reflecting distancing in politics and policy from Trump.

9/

Sturgeon's approval might be similarly responding to contrast with UK government. And the contrast is purely based on communication. And, I suppose, Sturgeon and Scottish government are benefiting from her undoubtedly and daily leading proceedings, whereas Johnson delegates.

10/

But it is fascinating because Sturgeon operates in as much of a polarized environment in Scotland as Johnson does across Britain. Both went into the crisis with their party riding high in the polls. Both were close to 50% by February.

11/

And arguably Scottish Tories went earlier and more on the attack during the crisis than Labour did in Westminster.
Fragmentation of the opposition in Scotland is beneficial and also that the main opposition party is of course the governing party in Westminster.

12/

Perhaps a minor point, but Sturgeon and the SNP have taken Independence as an issue largely off the table for the duration of the crisis, while in Westminster Brexit is ever-present and government refuses to set it aside during crisis by asking for extension with EU.

13/

I really don't have the answers, more thinking out loud.
Others may have much better ideas about what is happening.

@ailsa_henderson @robjohns75