The #Cummings scandal will do lasting damage to the standing of both Johnson personally, and the Tory government because the perception will be that the PM has put protecting his friend above protecting the country.
(THREAD) #DomGate
(THREAD) #DomGate
1/n The first public perception will be of the government telling the public to do one thing and then doing another. Cummings might get some sympathy for his child (though how many will see that level of detail?) but the overall impression is still one of hypocrisy.
2/n Even on the facts (?) as asserted by Cummings, there are still serious questions:
- Why did he return to No 10 after being in contact with a Covid19 sufferer?
- How could he know he wouldn& #39;t have to stop on the way north (assuming he didn& #39;t)?
- Why did he return to No 10 after being in contact with a Covid19 sufferer?
- How could he know he wouldn& #39;t have to stop on the way north (assuming he didn& #39;t)?
3/n In particular, the Barnard Castle aspect is doing damage because it& #39;s so easy to ridicule and because Cummings is almost certainly lying.
You do not need to (and shouldn& #39;t) take a 60-mile round trip to a beauty spot on his wife& #39;s birthday to check you eyes.
You do not need to (and shouldn& #39;t) take a 60-mile round trip to a beauty spot on his wife& #39;s birthday to check you eyes.
4/n The "checking my eyesight" is, of itself, likely to find a place in the footnotes of history as one of the most ridiculous excuses offered by someone in politics, alongside Ron Davies& #39; badger-watching or this lot below: https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iv-drip/politicians-excuses-after-rob-ford-ten-other-unlikely-stories-8924320.html">https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/iv...
5/n However, one advisor behaving badly is not much of a story. Two things elevate this to a higher level.
1. The govt has stood by Cummings so thumbed its nose at the public; and
2. Did it bring forward the announcements on schools and shops to distract from #DomGate?
1. The govt has stood by Cummings so thumbed its nose at the public; and
2. Did it bring forward the announcements on schools and shops to distract from #DomGate?
6/n By tying himself so clearly to Cummings *now*, Johnson has put himself on the wrong side of the dividing line. He loses a great deal of credibility in demanding more from the public if he& #39;ll give exceptions to his friends (and Johnson has form on that score).
7/n To remain bound to Cummings is an immense waste of the political capital and goodwill that Johnson gained by having himself been a Covid-19 sufferer. He could have used that experience for the public benefit; instead, he risks an alternative narrative of recklessness.
8/n But the most serious issue has barely been given attention yet because most of the media are still distracted by the minutiae of the Cummings story.
The govt made two big announcements, on shops and schools, as the Cummings story broke and developed. Was this coincidence?
The govt made two big announcements, on shops and schools, as the Cummings story broke and developed. Was this coincidence?
9/n If the govt advanced the reopening of schools and shops as a (failed) political tactic to distract from the #Cummings story - which is the suspicion - then they will reopen with Covid-19 more prevalent than would otherwise have been the case - and people will die as a result.
10/n After all, the background to the #Cummings story is already bad, with Britain having more Covid-19 deaths than anywhere else in Europe. It is not difficult to tie that general outcome to a specific example of senior govt members not taking the crisis seriously.
11/n Johnson will always be vulnerable because of his own past behaviour. His handling of #DomGate plays right back into that narrative.
If Labour accuse him of putting protecting his friends above protecting the country, that could well stick.
If Labour accuse him of putting protecting his friends above protecting the country, that could well stick.
12/12 One final point. Johnson& #39;s personal rating (with Mori) *declined* during the 2019GE, finishing on a not-very-impressive net -20. His post-election honeymoon was therefore founded on a relatively insecure base. He cannot rely on continued public goodwill without earning it.