Unpopular opinion -> Perfectly assembled, representative, unbiased samples are not the way to go.

Instead, find a biased sample and pray you are lucky.
A short thread - 1/n https://twitter.com/banglani/status/1264911826581508096

The ability to do great user research a superpower for an entrepreneur or product manager.

While doing user research needs effort, it is doable

Taking away the right insight is super hard. Why? 2/n

Because user research has many conflicting dimensions



ex: I want to know if the problem I am solving is a top of mind, severe problem for the user. 


9/10 times, startup die because not enough people give a damn 3/n

But if I follow statistical wisdom and take a sample of users who are well balanced, representative of the world, I have started off on the wrong foot.



No problem ( except this Corona) affects everyone.
 Average, unbiased samples will give average lukewarm responses. 
4/n

But if I take a smaller, biased sample the problem I 
am solving is acute/ severe/ top of mind for that sample, then in 9/10 cases I end up wondering if the market is too niche for it to be worth my while - 5/n

And hence, the key to doing good market research is to answer the real Billion dollar question ->

is this behaviour that I see in my niche group that gives a damn, going to become mainstream behaviour X years down the line 
-
6/n

So now I am modeling future human behaviour in an accelerating technology landscape.

Suddenly it becomes a intuitive call rather than a statistical call
And that is the hardest intellectual question to answer for an entrepreneur IMO - 7/n

This research used to be easier earlier. If it has happened in USA/China, it will happen elsewhere.. Because deep down humans want the same basic things ( hope, connection, information, entertainment, roti, kapda, makaan) -8/n

But as the innovation curve gets tighter, more of us have to take the call without the comfort of precedence.

And hence, while user research remains critical, the real superpower is probably the ability to take the leap of faith 
 -9/n

IMO perfect representative user research samples are the easiest way to put an idea away.

@banglani Your instinct was right - Vix, Squarespace, bubble, web flow, medium !
 -10/n

Doing user research for entrepreneurship should be a masterclass topic -n/n