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#China- #India stand-off at Laddakh & consequences 4 #Pakistan
What I think of new tension?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">’s move into #Laddakh & establishing a hold over Galwan river valley comes after https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> coerced Nepal by encroaching it’s border territory & reviving Kalapani dispute.
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#China- #India stand-off at Laddakh & consequences 4 #Pakistan
What I think of new tension?
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China says that #India actually encroached in its territory. The similar holding over of river valley led to 1962 war between India and China.
What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?
A) What immediate reasons?
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What strategic compulsion weighed in behind the Chinese move?
A) What immediate reasons?
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1. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> ’s aggressive behaviour re Nepal reviving Kalapani dispute, indirectly implicated https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">-es interest.
2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India">-n intention 2 turn Laddakh into union territory rattled https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China"> that https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> is materially changing status of th region contested byhttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">& https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇰" title="Flag of Pakistan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Pakistan">.
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2. Post Aug 5 annexation of IOK w/
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3. https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China"> ’s perception of its tactical invulnerability on Laddakh front constitutes best pressure point 2 send a message to https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India">;
4.https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China"> rightly read lack of will in Delhi 2 pay back kinetically given its weakness re, economy, Corona & IOK on boil, hence afforded perfect chance;
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B) What is constant?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="♠️" title="Spade suit" aria-label="Emoji: Spade suit">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> unlikely seek a full fledged fight w/ https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China"> due 2
-historical reasons—1962 defeat;
-its unpreparedness;
-economic differential w/https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">.
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="♠️" title="Spade suit" aria-label="Emoji: Spade suit">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China"> will also eschew escalating given its pic picture imperatives: economic revival; post Corona order etc.
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-historical reasons—1962 defeat;
-its unpreparedness;
-economic differential w/
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C) What https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> can do?
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="♦️" title="Diamond suit" aria-label="Emoji: Diamond suit">https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> has less options kinetically;
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="♦️" title="Diamond suit" aria-label="Emoji: Diamond suit">since https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> seeks 2 control spread of tension, any escalation may have unintended consequences;
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="♦️" title="Diamond suit" aria-label="Emoji: Diamond suit">best pressure point 4 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> is South China Sea but it is unthinkable 2 breach into high militarised zone-a red line for https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">;
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it means constant Beijing pressure on #Gallwan river valley & putting an end 2 delusional aspirations of making Laddakh a union territory.
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D) What India would seek?
(i) India will seek #US support by posing a victim of Chinese aggression;
(ii) Delhi will further cement defence cooperation w/ Washington;
(iii) #India will expedite decoupling & take parallel economic measures....
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(i) India will seek #US support by posing a victim of Chinese aggression;
(ii) Delhi will further cement defence cooperation w/ Washington;
(iii) #India will expedite decoupling & take parallel economic measures....
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....https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> is stepping back from digital #BRI like Alibaba, Huawei,ZTE etc; launched BNSL4G; investment in Reliance Joi;
2 trade policy—one 4 China other 4 rest —codified as “Atam Nirbhar Bharat”;
Pharmaceuticals 2 revisit value chain; new barriers towardshttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇨🇳" title="Flag of China" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of China">-es investment;
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2 trade policy—one 4 China other 4 rest —codified as “Atam Nirbhar Bharat”;
Pharmaceuticals 2 revisit value chain; new barriers towards
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(iv) #Delhi’s military & strategic establishment would exponentially enhance security budget;
E) Repercussions 4 #Pakistan?
Kinetic:
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔶" title="Large orange diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Large orange diamond"> On the positive, India would think twice executing its rhetorics of taking GB due 2 Chinese vital interest in #CPEC going through GB.
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E) Repercussions 4 #Pakistan?
Kinetic:
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....would like 2 go 4 fall-back option e.g, attack Pakistan 2 appease its domestic public opinion & assuage prestige loss;
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔶" title="Large orange diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Large orange diamond"> https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> after Balakot & August 5 IOK annexation, believes Pakistan may have no will to escalate hence can give space 4 kinetic action of its choosing;
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Thus it is right time 2 attack
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.....a perfect alibi 2 mount a kinetic response againsthttps://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇰" title="Flag of Pakistan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Pakistan">;
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔶" title="Large orange diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Large orange diamond">CPEC likely further be targeted;
https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🔶" title="Large orange diamond" aria-label="Emoji: Large orange diamond"> https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇵🇰" title="Flag of Pakistan" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of Pakistan"> was facing hybrid warfare by https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India"> but now it has unpalatable choice: risk more https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India">-n aggressions into its territory or establish new deterrence by raising cost 4 https://abs.twimg.com/emoji/v2/... draggable="false" alt="🇮🇳" title="Flag of India" aria-label="Emoji: Flag of India">.
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