I think there's a deeper issue.

I suspect the Han Chinese birth rate is considerably lower than the government is letting on, and has been for a while.

I know this sounds like me being all "DEMOGRAPHY UBER ALLES" but hear me out! https://twitter.com/rhcm123/status/1265116671930400768

China just ended the One-Child policy in 2015.

In this year's party conference there's been a serious push for removing the ban on 3-child families.

In 5 years China has pivoted from 1-child to the cusp of 3-children!

We know birth rates in Xinjiang have plummeted. But even the official statistics for eastern China show sharply lower birth rates. Companies who work in infant products in China report that their market forecasts from a couple years ago aren't panning out.

Now, why would this matter?

Well, for years, I've been arguing that the 21st century will see the US ascendant over China again. My reasoning was simple: the US benefits from higher birth rates and higher immigration.

By 2050 China's population (esp. fighting-age!) will be in Eastern-Europe-scale freefall. Their ability to maintain their current position will be seriously in doubt, even as population continues to rise in much of south and southeast Asia.

Plus, China's relative per capita growth is converging with these places. Put bluntly, the lower you believe China's birth rate to be, the *earlier* its peak in relative power will come.

If China's fertility rate is 1.6 children per woman, they may have another decade of stable fighting-age population. But if it's 1.2 children per woman, and if it's lowkey been that way for a decade, China might already be at or past that point!

There's enormous expert debate about China's population and fertility (and mortality!) trends and levels.

But what if the CCP believes, rightly or wrongly, that the population pessimists are correct? What if they believe their manpower is about to decline precipitously?

What if they suspect this will become obvious to the wider world in the next decade? What if they believe that their ability to maintain their present military manpower is in jeopardy?

They would use the moment to earn a reputation to last for the next several decades.

There's a standard theory saying superpowers are most dangerous when beginning to decline, as they try to preserve their position. That logic has been applied to America, with China the rising power.

But.... what if actually *China* is the declining power?

Or, given the CCP leadership's obsession with the century of humiliation and their very evident top-tier policy concern with demography, what if they *believe* themselves to be facing an interminable decline?

People keep saying "what if the economic data is wrong."

Folks, we *know* the demographic data is wrong! We've known it for a long time! The only debate is *just how wrong*! And if the pessimists are right, it would have geo-strategic implications!