Read on Twitter
these tweets got me thinking. A few points: https://twitter.com/rhornik/status/1264893794471813120
1. For those who don’t monitor China’s economy for a living like I do, it may seem like things are getting back to normal over there. Far from it: the US & EU’s woes are pulling them down further. The virus has made the debt/zombie crisis acute. Virus cases still flare up.
2. But I don’t think that’s the whole picture. The CCP has 2 main goals:
A. Maintain grip on domestic power
B. Turn surrounding countries into vassal states
I find it useful to use those two prongs to examine any of the PRC’s behavior.
3. The PRC has basically ripped the mask off
A. Maintain grip on domestic power
B. Turn surrounding countries into vassal states
I find it useful to use those two prongs to examine any of the PRC’s behavior.
3. The PRC has basically ripped the mask off
when it comes to point B. No more “peaceful China rising” it’s now “wolf warrior” - in your face, assertive, we’re in charge here. We can talk about why that is (century of humiliation, etc) later. I think it’s because Xi senses an opening now.
I mean, the US-led int’l system is collapsing, the US itself is weakened by the worst COVID19 epidemic globally, the US has turned inwards anyways, and we’re lead by a moron. If you wanted to replace the US as the hegemon in Southeast Asia, can you think of a better time?
4. Most of the actions China has taken have - in my view - been trying to see how far they can go before they get real pushback. For instance, the border skirmish with India started with a few hundred men, and now there’s a PLA division on Indian territory with limited response.
5. There may be some internal party machinations to these actions. The anti-Xi factions are basically nonexistent at this point, but I’ve gotten the sense that a lot of the politburo is chafing are the idea of collective responsibility during the pandemic.
I mean, they make Xi the most powerful man in China since Mao, then when COVID hits Xi ditches “I make all the decisions” to “let’s make all the decisions (and share all the blame) together!” I got the sense that didn’t sit well with a lot of other leadership.
6. As to Hong Kong, well, the PRC lied. They never had any intention of allowing a thriving western democracy under their “special administration”. They just knew they couldn’t end it overnight, particularly not if they risked biting sanctions. They’re calculating now they can.
My final point is this: I don’t think CCP military expeditionism and economic domineering is the exception, I think it’s the rule. As to why now, well, I think they sense opportunity. Who in the west is going to stop them?
