1) Montreal recorded its lowest number of new #COVID cases in almost nine weeks on Monday, even though it’s boosted #COVID19 testing. The epicenter of Canada’s #pandemic may be calming, but there are worrisome undercurrents. In this thread, I will try to explain some of them.

2) The orange line in the chart below shows an undeniable trend downward in Montreal for the past four days even though Quebec ramped up #COVID screening more than two weeks ago. The past six-day average is 12,860 analyses, almost double the number before the testing blitz.

3) The number of daily #COVID deaths is also trending downward, as the dark blue line in the chart below shows. More than two weeks ago, the metropolis was observing daily numbers in the low hundreds. Now it's in the 20s and 30s.

4) The number of #COVID cases in long-term care centres (CHSLDs) and seniors’ residences in Montreal stood at 2,769 Monday, down from 2,891 — a drop of 128. I’ve also accounted for a discrepancy between the deaths in these facilities and the tally by the local health authority.

5) The total number of deaths compiled by the local health department are for Montreal, while the daily updates that include fatalities in CHSLDs and seniors’ residences are provincial. Those updates still contain discrepancies, though, and a lag in reporting cases and deaths.

6) At the neighborhood level, seven Montreal boroughs and municipalities reported no new #COVID cases in two days: Beaconsfield, Hampstead, Montreal East, Montreal West, Westmount, Senneville and Sainte-Anne-de-Bellevue. This has never happened before.

7) And even Montreal’s #COVID hot spots are still not declaring daily cases in the 30s. Montreal North, for example, observed 16 new cases, the lowest total in a while. Although authorities ramped up testing in Mercier-Hochelaga-Maisonneuve, it posted 23 new cases on Monday.

8) Off the island of Montreal, the Eastern Townships — once a #COVID hotbed — did not report any new cases on Saturday or Sunday, a truly heartening development that demonstrates that public-health measures and #PhysicalDistancing can truly succeed.

9) But one objective of this nightly thread has been to delve into the trouble spots and warn where the #pandemic can flare up. It’s telling that Quebec’s chief health officer, Dr. @ArrudaHoracio, noted on Monday that small outbreaks have occurred in schools outside of Montreal.

10) What would've happened had Premier @francoislegault stuck to his plan to reopen Montreal schools? This surely would have resulted in school outbreaks in the city. Arruda said we’ll know in two weeks the impact of reopening stores and allowing public gatherings of 10 people.

11) While the Eastern Townships has not encountered any new cases, the Outaouais region has posted a 22-per-cent jump in #COVID infections since May 18 —the highest of any region in Quebec, Montreal included. Again, this shows the volatility of the #pandemic.

12) Although #COVID hospitalizations are down, authorities are not reporting what front-line nurses in Montreal are telling me: that they’re still getting infected. Tonight at one Montreal hospital, there’s a health worker in the intensive-care unit fighting for his or her life.

13) As the city braces for an early heat wave this week, 14 of the city’s emergency rooms were either overcrowded or approaching it on Monday morning. Those numbers are similar to the ones reported last May, but we’re in a #pandemic right now.

14) Although Legault acknowledged the situation is “still fragile” in Montreal, he’s pushing ahead with his reopening plan. Meanwhile in Ontario, Premier Doug Ford announced he’s delaying gatherings of more than five people after large crowds at a Toronto park. End of thread.