In a remarkable turn of events after more viral genomes are sequenced (samples got 23 & Me'd) in WA, new data suggest that the #COVID19 outbreak in WA did not originate from the patient traveling from Wuhan. Current models suggest origin from...Canada! 1/ https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1265063921880150016.html

Recap: The initial hypothesis regarding the origin of the #COVID19 outbreak in #WA state was from a case of a traveler coming back from Wuhan, which they designated as WA-1, due to the similarity of the WA-1 to other WA samples. 2/ https://twitter.com/trvrb/status/1265063924090630144?s=20

However, based on sequencing data from additional samples originating from British Columbia (BC), the "family tree" of the virus samples shows a closer relationship between the BC samples and the bulk of the WA samples vs. the WA-1 and the bulk of WA samples 3/

Or in the parlance of @TheMAURYShow, WA1 is NOT the father of the other WA #SARSCoV2 samples. It's more likely WA1 is a great-grand-uncle or great(2x)-grand uncle. So is one of the British Columbia samples the father? That is still unclear, one could be the dad or the uncle. 4/

Sequencing of more viral genome samples could help us determine the direct ancestor of the bulk of the WA viral samples in order to find more evidence of the relationship of the BC samples from the bulk of WA samples or find the missing links between the two groups /5

Does that mean the scientists were incorrect in the initial model? Not necessarily. The Genome Science Institute is trying its best to get useful information out ASAP given the limited data they have on hand. Additional data helps to clear up some ambiguities in the old models /6

And the previous model helped guide state public health officials estimate how long and how wide the #SARS_CoV2 has been circulating in the community; two useful info if you're preparing to face a pandemic. What the scientists got right saved a lot of lives 7/

And what they got wrong? It's likely small in the grand scheme of saving lives. If you're a leader who is eager to saber-rattle against a foreign nation you want to blame for the pandemic? Yeah, this throws a big wrench in your plan. Unless you want a quarrel with #Canada 8/

We have to always remember that scientists are not omniscient, but ethical ones give the most useful advice based on the current data available. Thanks to Trevor Bedford @trvrb for the excellent thread that I used as source. Any mistakes are mine n/ #Scicomm #AcademicTwitter