So here's the thing; There are definitely two culture-war sides to the #DominicCummings story (see #SackCummings v #ScumMedia hashtags) - as with most stories - and that normally would be a saving grace for the Government https://twitter.com/StarSports_Bet/status/1264998862978195459

Whilst these are obviously not headlines Govt wants, they do have 80 seat majority and large poll lead (at time of writing) which gives them degree of insulation from consequences in the short term, and think that's likely to have played a part in their response so far

However, there's an edge to this story (bar the fact it's clearly got cut through beyond most events of its kind) - it's the first one since the election that I can think of where the Government's position is offending its own voters

By it's own voters, I refer to two categories; Tory voters (59% of whom told YouGov at the weekend that he broke the rules) but also the 47% of Leave voters who thought he should *resign* at that time)

In culture war, normally even having 40% of people in direct opposition to your policy would be *fine* if Your Guys backed it, but this time they don't

We are obviously a long way from any sort of vote, but Conservative voters (mainly those 50 - 75, homeowners, with big families) turning away from Conservative brand is the sort of shift that could do long term damage to their position - over what time remains to be seen....

And I suspect that the last thing left which could put Cummings in danger is a continued show of outrage from the Conservative core groups - in the sense that people who are relatively non engaged with politics feel profound sense of betrayal/unfairness

With that in mind, it really matters that figures who Conservatives trust (for example Julia Hartley Brewer/Montie, and then The Mail) are if anything even angrier after the last 24 hours

This Govt & most of the people in it live on narrative and governing for whom they think is 'us' v 'them' - you can plow on with your strategy when the only people who car are your opponents or voters you're very unlikely to reach, but when the core is up in arms? Very different