2020 Running Back Draft Thread 9/16

Darrynton Evans

Round 3: pick 93 to the TEN Titans

9th RB taken/ Projected 13th RB (Early 5th)

Prospect Grade: D+
Chance For Success: 34.34%
Risk Rating: 4 (0-4)
Capital: ✔-
Landing Spot: ✔-
Size: ✖
BMI: ✔-
Speed: ✔
Age: ✔...
...
Competition Grade: B-
Off Field: Inactive Season/injury
Injury: Med/Med-High

Evans is the first RB in this class to come with a competition grade <A(power5 every year). The grade is cumulative. It accounts for each year in a college facility and applies a different level...
...for each level from CC to JUCO and up to Power5. This means a player that is a transfer to a power 5 conference will not be graded the same as one that played their every year to balance the production levels and account for guys that lay waste to lesser competition. Here...
...are the success rates by grade levels quick to give an idea (Note: A - D- grades/ No A+ grades, no F grades)

A/A- = 41.13% success (196 RBs)
B+/B/B- = 43.28% (67)
C+/C/C- = 26.67% (15)
D+/D/D- = 31.25% (16)

The difference between the amount of RBs with a C+ - C- & D+ - D-...
...is just 1 RB & the Sample of A - A- is much greater than of B+ - and still slightly above the avg for all (40.5%). When we look at avg round drafted, it makes a bit more sense and the. The furthest range in terms of draft capital is one of the better predictors. W/ FF Hit...
...rate...

50% = NFL Capital a better predictor
75% = equal
100% = RBPC better

Enough of that and back to Evans. He comes with a B- Grade which may look great above but when broken down further, B- has the largest sample size and only grade in the (B) range under a 50%...
...success rate (38.09%, 16/42). Still just slightly below avg success. That could still give pause but he did go in the 3rd round which is above avg for a B comp grade level. So, what did the Titans like?

Evans ran 4.41 at the combine which will def turn a head or two but...
...he is just 202 lbs. Combined with age, Evans comes out as an 82 percentile age adjusted athlete (Age Adj Athleticism has an R^2 of >0.27 to FF consistency/ >0.32 to draft cap as a stand alone metric). He sits in this range and historically, it has been better to be >=220lbs...
...he is just 202 lbs. Combined with age, Evans comes out as an 82 percentile age adjusted athlete (Age Adj Athleticism has an R^2 of >0.27 to FF consistency/ >0.32 to draft cap as a stand alone metric). He sits in this range and historically, it has been better to be >=220lbs...
...he is just 202 lbs. Combined with age, Evans comes out as an 82 percentile age adjusted athlete (Age Adj Athleticism has an R^2 of >0.27 to FF consistency/ >0.32 to draft cap as a stand alone metric). He sits in this range and historically, it has been better to be >=220lbs...
...he is just 202 lbs. Combined with age, Evans comes out as an 82 percentile age adjusted athlete (Age Adj Athleticism has an R^2 of >0.27 to FF consistency/ >0.32 to draft cap as a stand alone metric). He sits in this range and historically, it has been better to be >=220lbs...
...he is just 202 lbs. Combined with age, Evans comes out as an 82 percentile age adjusted athlete (Age Adj Athleticism has an R^2 of >0.27 to FF consistency/ >0.32 to draft cap as a stand alone metric). He sits in this range and historically, it has been better to be >=220lbs...
...in this range...

<220lbs = 27.27% success
>=220lbs = 53.84%

...but there are still examples like Jamaal Charles, Tarik Cohen, and Marlon Mack. Lets look at the profiles of these three vs Evans. Although the usage was similar as far as % of touches via receptions, Evans...
By far came with the smallest workload of the 4. Unfortunately, he also was the least efficient of the group as well and by a considerable margin behind Charles and Cohen but still a good bit worse than Mack as well. Using these and factoring in age, injury, competition, size...
By far came with the smallest workload of the 4. Unfortunately, he also was the least efficient of the group as well and by a considerable margin behind Charles and Cohen but still a good bit worse than Mack as well. Using these and factoring in age, injury, competition, size...
By far came with the smallest workload of the 4. Unfortunately, he also was the least efficient of the group as well and by a considerable margin behind Charles and Cohen but still a good bit worse than Mack as well. Using these and factoring in age, injury, competition, size...
By far came with the smallest workload of the 4. Unfortunately, he also was the least efficient of the group as well and by a considerable margin behind Charles and Cohen but still a good bit worse than Mack as well. Using these and factoring in age, injury, competition, size...
...and speed to form the Physical Toll Grade which forms their performance draft capital range (1/3 ranges projected to give ceiling to floor) which we can see on the right. Evans was not the performer either of the other three were and not particularly close. He also did not...
...and speed to form the Physical Toll Grade which forms their performance draft capital range (1/3 ranges projected to give ceiling to floor) which we can see on the right. Evans was not the performer either of the other three were and not particularly close. He also did not...
...and speed to form the Physical Toll Grade which forms their performance draft capital range (1/3 ranges projected to give ceiling to floor) which we can see on the right. Evans was not the performer either of the other three were and not particularly close. He also did not...
...demonstrate the ability to handle a workload in a similar way to the other three (vW/T per 100/y vs per game %, will post threads about the metrics at the end) and if you've followed the other threads, a low % here with a larger workload is the prime range to be in. Lets...
...demonstrate the ability to handle a workload in a similar way to the other three (vW/T per 100/y vs per game %, will post threads about the metrics at the end) and if you've followed the other threads, a low % here with a larger workload is the prime range to be in. Lets...
...demonstrate the ability to handle a workload in a similar way to the other three (vW/T per 100/y vs per game %, will post threads about the metrics at the end) and if you've followed the other threads, a low % here with a larger workload is the prime range to be in. Lets...
...demonstrate the ability to handle a workload in a similar way to the other three (vW/T per 100/y vs per game %, will post threads about the metrics at the end) and if you've followed the other threads, a low % here with a larger workload is the prime range to be in. Lets...
...find some players more similar to comp Evans too.

Here are the most similarly graded to Evans with a similar % of touches via the pass. We see that Evans is the best Age Adjusted Athlete here in the range. He ranks middle of the pack in touches and in terms of % of games...
...find some players more similar to comp Evans too.Here are the most similarly graded to Evans with a similar % of touches via the pass. We see that Evans is the best Age Adjusted Athlete here in the range. He ranks middle of the pack in touches and in terms of % of games...
...find some players more similar to comp Evans too.Here are the most similarly graded to Evans with a similar % of touches via the pass. We see that Evans is the best Age Adjusted Athlete here in the range. He ranks middle of the pack in touches and in terms of % of games...
...find some players more similar to comp Evans too.Here are the most similarly graded to Evans with a similar % of touches via the pass. We see that Evans is the best Age Adjusted Athlete here in the range. He ranks middle of the pack in touches and in terms of % of games...
...find some players more similar to comp Evans too.Here are the most similarly graded to Evans with a similar % of touches via the pass. We see that Evans is the best Age Adjusted Athlete here in the range. He ranks middle of the pack in touches and in terms of % of games...
...with a larger workload, the lowest. Also middle of the pack efficiency on his receptions compared to the other 4. Here is a group though where the best player in the NFL did not demonstrating the best ability to handle a workload but Powell did come with the lowest overall...
...with a larger workload, the lowest. Also middle of the pack efficiency on his receptions compared to the other 4. Here is a group though where the best player in the NFL did not demonstrating the best ability to handle a workload but Powell did come with the lowest overall...
...with a larger workload, the lowest. Also middle of the pack efficiency on his receptions compared to the other 4. Here is a group though where the best player in the NFL did not demonstrating the best ability to handle a workload but Powell did come with the lowest overall...
...with a larger workload, the lowest. Also middle of the pack efficiency on his receptions compared to the other 4. Here is a group though where the best player in the NFL did not demonstrating the best ability to handle a workload but Powell did come with the lowest overall...
...volume based wear and tear value and as we saw in the 4th image, the highest upside of the group which all reflected on the performance in the league. Evans was however the best on field performer of the bunch but Not a lot here at all to look forward to for fantasy based...
...volume based wear and tear value and as we saw in the 4th image, the highest upside of the group which all reflected on the performance in the league. Evans was however the best on field performer of the bunch but Not a lot here at all to look forward to for fantasy based...
...volume based wear and tear value and as we saw in the 4th image, the highest upside of the group which all reflected on the performance in the league. Evans was however the best on field performer of the bunch but Not a lot here at all to look forward to for fantasy based...
...volume based wear and tear value and as we saw in the 4th image, the highest upside of the group which all reflected on the performance in the league. Evans was however the best on field performer of the bunch but Not a lot here at all to look forward to for fantasy based...
...on these comps.

Evans heads to Tennessee now in what will almost certainly be a third down, pass catching type roll. Henry may see some decline in touches but with his contract set to expire at the end of 2020, they are go I.g to ride him until the wheels fall off with...
...Evans being more what they hoped Dion Lewis would be the last few years. If Henry leaves in 2021, do not expect this 200+ lbs RB to handle anythi.g near the workload of Henry and they may look to one of the young studs like Najee Harris to come in and command the lion...
...share of the rushing work at the least. Evans profiles more like a satellite back for the Titans attack in 2020 and likely moving forward into 2021.

Thank you and check out the database and article in pinned tweet as well as the rest of the RB Draft Threads completed.
Metric breakdowns🔽 https://twitter.com/willson8tor/status/1256375924297101313?s=19
You can follow @willson8tor.
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