Some unrelated thoughts on India-China standoff: I have seen & considered a number of scenarios of India-Pak escalation triggered by a terror attack in India but none in which India has to simultaneously contend with a 5000-strong PLA incursion. So that’s new.

Re US response: Amb Wells’s parting thoughts on the standoff effectively were: stop China firmly now as this doesn’t end here. My reaction to that was, sure, but what can & will US do for India in short-term? As @clary_co points out, not straightforward: https://twitter.com/clary_co/status/1264962460261519360 https://twitter.com/acsouthasia/status/1260641428142686209

For what it’s worth, US response and role is on the mind of at least one Chinese analyst writing in the GT, seen as the major variable mediating Indian next steps: https://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1189472.shtml

There is the question of broader Chinese play here. In quotes of Indian officials/experts, range of grand plans have emerged from setting India back to securing BRI to acquiring territory for road to bypass Khunjerab. Given hyperbole, I don’t know if I believe them for now...

...but just the fact that it raises questions on a play involving Pakistan, BRI, whether and how US gets involved, ought to introduce (more) uncertainty in Indian balance of threat calculus (ala Walt 85/90) for preserving status quo or changing it in and around Kashmir.

Final thought: intriguing many pushing back on reports/-ers of standoff story & “idle speculation”. Perhaps driven by desire for escalation control? But puzzle is that China isn’t Pak in Indian context & hawks who’d gun for war with Pak don’t see China as pushover, I think.

So, hard to see there being calls for sticking it to the Chinese. Maybe I am misreading Indian elite & public opinion. Also, not convinced it’s coming from a place of “lets be measured”? Another possibility that standoff seen as slight in of itself — lapse similar to Kargil.

Either way, early days of a major geopolitical development which deserves more scrutiny not less.