Unqualified self-promoters jumped to exploit the inherent uncertainty in scientific research to pretend at prophecy, that scientists were wrong and they were right because they plowed ahead, unhindered by uncertainty, spreading misinformation along the way and stoking panic

The reality is that we ALL knew a pandemic was coming. It was never a question of if but when. In Jan, I was not certain at all that this novel virus would cause a pandemic. Our lack of preparedness, both globally and in the US, hindered our ability to address that uncertainty.

So it is monumentally frustrating when people point to this as evidence that scientists are “wrong” and the self-appointed Cassandras of Twitter are “right” because they had shoutier tweets and weren’t letting a little thing like evidence stand in their way.

(Aside: can we retire poor Cassandra from the public discussion? She rejected Apollo’s sexual advances, was cursed to be never believed, and was repeatedly raped, tortured, and enslaved. It’s not an apt comparison for any of the prophets of doom gloating about being “right”.)

I understand that people are uncomfortable with uncertainty. Scientists engaged in public health struggle constantly with balancing uncertainty with a need to take action. This is more nuanced than being “right” or “wrong.”

Unfortunately the focus on who is “right” and when they were right is giving oxygen to the “infodemic” that is contributing to the extreme political polarization of public health priorities. Nobody can be “right” about a pathogen that is still mired in so much uncertainty.

Though we know much more about #SARSCoV2 than we did in January, there are major questions that still need to be answered. We still don’t even know basic things about transmission, viral replication, immunity, etc. We are still dealing with a high level of uncertainty.

Personally there are still so many unanswered questions for me that—as a virologist who studies emerging coronaviruses including #SARSCoV2—I am a long way from being an expert on this virus. I feel more like an expert in things we don’t know & #COVID19 misinformation

But one thing is certain: vaccines work. So in the fall, I’ll still be tweeting about people getting flu shots. Even though I’ll still likely be very uncertain about many aspects of the coronavirus pandemic, I won’t be “wrong” to recommend other good public health practices.

And I am also certain that this false dichotomy of “right” and “wrong” as applied to a generational pandemic is harmful to the entire scientific research enterprise and to public health. So I’ll happily be “wrong” if it allows a deeper discussion about evidence and uncertainty.

A more nuanced discussion with a public that has a better understanding of uncertainties is long overdue. If I can contribute to this in any way by being “wrong”, then I’m glad to oblige.