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I think the US should reflect very soberly on the Meng Wanzhou affair. Affair as distinct from legal case, because I have no reason to doubt the independence of CDN judiciary, so response of CDN gov’t is material, not judgment itself.
Based on what the CDN government has said and not said, it seems clear that a judgment releasing her would be very welcome. The thinking is that the Canadian hostages would then be freed and ‘business as usual’ would quickly resume.
For Canada, perhaps the biggest of Big Bets since at least the late 1980s has been that forging the closest possible economic ties with Asia (which now basically means PRC), is the road to economic growth. So far this bet has paid off very handsomely.
The point the US should reflect on is that setting aside history, values, and culture, in strictly economic and military terms there should on paper be no country in the world locked into a closer relationship with the US than Canada.
If the Canadian government is openly embarrassed at having to take any action on behalf of the US in a dispute with the PRC, and wants to run for cover and pray the situation blows over, this behavior deserves analysis.
Canadian gov’t clearly thinks that any economic distancing from the PRC would be unimaginable economic catastrophe. By contrast, implosion of economic links with US is literally unthinkable and un-thought-of.
Why? Because the Canada-US trade relationship is rightly seen as a mutually-beneficial arrangement operating within an economic and legal framework that is fundamentally stable and protected by non-governmental stake-holders on both sides.
By contrast, the PRC has conditioned CDN gov’t to view economic ties with China as one-sided, something the PRC needs far less Canada, essentially a political gift that Canada needs to hustle to earn. If it doesn't hustle enough, the payback goes far beyond the economic sphere.
Meng Wanzhou affair simply illustrates great success of PRC strategy. Reason for sober US reflection is that if this is true of Canada, which genuinely relies on US, then mutatis mutandis it’s hard to feel US has any truly reliable allies vis-à-vis PRC in Asia or Europe.
And this is the core dilemma for US: PRC has been hugely successful at promoting view that a country does not need to choose between US and PRC markets, but since economic ties with PRC are entirely politicized, a country does need to pay more attention to PRC than US interests.
I have no real policy prescription for the US, but my point here is that the fact that there’s any significant US-PRC contest for influence at all in Canada is not a great sign for the US and should stir some sober, if not grave, reflection.
